Volatility in the winter months continued Tuesday
The volatility in the winter months continued Tuesday with swings of up to 25.00p in prices intra-day after prices soared on opening. October which is due to expire on ICE today peaked at 213.09p before the market came back midway through the session but near futures settled between 5.00p and 9.50p higher day on day. It is believed that gas flows through the Russian Yamal line increased yesterday, and this triggered the price reversal. Gas flows along the line from Russia had been curbed since a fire in early August. The spot and day ahead products are running at a discount to the front of the curve after both recorded sharp losses yesterday. The contract for next week, ticked up on forecasts for less wind generation, however, there was some good news as two LNG tankers are expected today.
Carbon EUAs out to 2023 reversed early gains
Power prices in the UK racked up another day of gains as the baseload power market tracked gas futures higher early in the session. Near month contracts held on to most of the early rises despite a late sell-off in Carbon prices. Near baseload contracts rose between £6.45/MWh and £14.20/MWh yesterday. Carbon EUAs out to 2023 reversed early gains and went on to settle around 4.2% down yesterday. The Dec-21 contract settled at €62.00 per tonne. Wind generation was 8.5GW yesterday and is expected to pick up today, however, baseload for the day ahead settled higher at £164.13/MWh.
Crude oil prices reversed through the afternoon
After four consecutive days of gains, it was looking likely that crude oil prices would make it five in a row after prices opened firmer yesterday. The global benchmark broke through the $80 a barrel marker early in the session but failed hold above that level. The dollar made a sharp correction and strengthened upon opening of the U.S. markets and crude oil prices reversed through the afternoon while an element of profit-taking also helped the late selloff. At the close, Brent was 44 cents down and settled at $79.09 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate settled at $75.29 a barrel down 16 cents a barrel.
Crude oil prices have continued to soften this morning
The national grid has gas demand forecast at 220MCM and despite a 10% uplift on Tuesday supplies are almost 10MCM long this morning. Norwegian im-ports have increased to 103MCM with flows through the Langeled line running close to full capacity, however, exports to the continent are nominated at 54MCM for today. Wide bid and offer spreads are stalling activity on the prompt this morning while near futures have opened sharply once again. Gains to the winter months on the NBP have been pared back somewhat although October is still trading above 200.00p per therm. Crude oil prices have continued to soften this morning with Brent last trading at $78.45 a barrel.