Crude has now posted seven straight weeks of gains

The market failed to hold on to the full extent of these losses

UK gas futures recorded losses of between 14.00p and 12.00p on opening and prices oscillated between these levels over the course of the morning session.  The market failed to hold on to the full extent of these losses as buying activity ramped up.  The spread between the high and the low on the front month contract was just over 8.00p per therm and 6.00p for the front Summer.  Prices firmed as the market approached the close and by settlement the March contract was marked down by just over 6.00p at 193.83p per therm.  The front Summer also shed a similar amount as it closed at 192.88p.  The gas system operated with a deficit of 7MCM early on but this gap was closed as storage injections finished in the afternoon.

GB baseload day ahead prices eased on Monday

GB baseload day ahead prices eased on Monday in line with forecasts for higher wind generation.  Forecast for today were expected to be 15% higher than Monday with over 13.2GW coming onto the system.  The day ahead contract settled at £163.60/MWh, just under £5.00 lower than the finish on the previous day. Baseload futures also shed value in line with falling fuels and the well supplied market.  With all inputs turning lower the from month March contract closed at £178.50/MWh, down by £7.00 from the previous close.  Winter 2022 shed £3.65 to finish at £191.25/MWh.

Crude oil futures went lower yesterday

Crude oil futures went lower yesterday after rising to a high of $94.00 and broke a three-session winning streak as it appeared that investors booked some profits.  Crude has now posted seven straight weeks of gains but a relatively small glimmer of progress in the US-Iranian talks caused the market to pause.  The Biden administrations eased some minor sanctions waivers as talks on the restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal enter the final phase.  Market sentiment still remains bullish with some predicting a £100 a barrel on the horizon.  Falling stockpiles, geopolitical issues and tension in Eastern Europe remain key factors for crude.

The UK gas system is well supplied this morning

Gas prices on the UK NBP have opened just over 5.00p/therm higher but there have been precious few takers at this a stage and trading has been light.  The front month was priced at 198.50p but the last few trades have gone through at 197.50p, up by 3.67p from last night’s close.  Summer 2022 has recently traded 198.00p but current bid/offer spreads would suggest that the next trade will be lower.  The UK gas system is well supplied this morning with high levels of wind generation displacing demand from conventional gas generation. The gas system is running with a surplus of 16MCM this morning. The crude oil market is down by a dollar at $91.61 a barrel.  

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