The near curve yielded the early losses and moved into positive territory
Temperatures have been revised a few degrees lower for the back half of the week although wind generation is expected to remain strong for the week which should counter the extra demand and gas prices on the prompt settled mixed on Monday. NBP futures opened softer on Monday morning but with tensions between Russia and the West on a knife edge the near curve yielded the early losses and moved into positive territory with the front month peaking at 182.53p. However, there was a further twist later in the session and contracts reversed direction once again to leave the March contract settle at 173.53p, down 2.96p day on day.
Carbon EUAs fluctuated on the day
The volatility seen in the NBP gas market was evident in the baseload power market on Monday as the near curve tracked movements in gas prices closely. All near curve contract save for April settled lower yesterday with the March contract closing at £169.25/MWh, down £0.75/MWh. Carbon EUAs fluctuated on the day too before settling 40 cent a tonne higher. The spot price for carbon EUAs settled at €88.96 per tonne on Monday. Baseload for the day ahead settled at £153.78/MWh, up £18.93/MWh yesterday but supply margins should improve for the back of the week as generation from wind is forecast above 12.0GW.
Crude oil prices climbed on the day
The tensions between Russia and the West remained to the fore on Monday despite an announcement from the French President that both Mr Putin and Mr Biden had agreed to meet in principle. Later in the session the Russian leader announced he would make an address to the nation in the evening and optimism waned for the meeting between the top two head of states. There was some positive reports from the U.S. Iranian talks with the spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry saying a deal was very close and significant progress was made. Crude oil prices climbed on the day with Brent closing in on the $100 a barrel marker before settling at $95.39, up $1.85 a barrel.
Prompt prices are also up in early trading
The energy markets opened firmer this morning following the news that the Russian President ordered troops into the two breakaway regions in east Ukraine, recognising them as independent states. The front of the NBP curve opened with gains of around 14.00p but latest trades for March have gone through at 184.00p, 10.47p up on last night’s close. Prompt prices are also up in early trading with the day ahead at 181.00p. The GB gas system is forecast 26MCM long against today’s demand of 256MCM. In the crude oil markets, Brent peaked at $99.50 a barrel earlier and is now at $98.53 a barrel, up $3.14.