The near curve on the NBP continued to show volatility

There were signs that Russian gas nominations had been lowered

Having opened with gains of up to 20.00p the near curve on the NBP continued to show volatility on Tuesday as contracts yielded gains through the session. There were signs that Russian gas nominations had been lowered via the Germany/ Polish border and the Ukraine/ Slovakia border and this added support early on.  There was no news of progress in the ceasefire talks but the fact representatives from both sides were still in discussions was taken as a positive and futures unwound most of the premium added on market opening.  At the close, the April contract settled at 274.40p, up 3.48p day on the day.

The early gains in NBP natural gas futures provided the direction for the GB baseload curve

The early gains in NBP natural gas futures provided the direction for the GB baseload curve on Tuesday. While trading was thin in the power market, the April contract was marked £1.35/MWh higher to close at £240.60/MWh. Gains for the remaining summer months were a touch higher, ranging from £6.05/MWh to £8.35/MWh. Baseload for the day ahead increased by 30.2% over the previous settlement as wind generation is forecast to drop below 3.5GW on Wednesday.  Wind generation has averaged over 9.5GW for the last week.

Brent settled below the $100 dollar marker for the first time in almost three weeks

Brent settled below the $100 dollar marker for the first time in almost three weeks yesterday as the coronavirus raised concerns for Asian demand once again.  China has enforced lockdowns in several north-eastern provinces as it fights to contain the latest outbreak of the coronavirus, confining millions to their homes. Russia has hinted it would support the Iran nuclear deal and subsequent lifting of sanctions on Iran which would allow Iranian crude oil back into the market, although recent talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled. Brent settled at $99.91 a barrel yesterday shedding $6.99 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell by $6.57 to $96.44 a barrel.

Brent rallied to $103.70 a barrel earlier

The ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives are sounding more positive according to a video address from the Ukrainian President, Mr Zelenskyy, this morning but he added more time was required. The NBP has reacted by reversing the opening gains of around 8.00p – 9.00p to trading around 4.00p below last night’s close.  April last traded at 270.40p and May at 269.89p.  The summer is still showing an earlier trade of 282.52p but the bid and ask prices are suggesting a price around 271.00p. After falling 12.76 a barrel over the previous two days, Brent rallied to $103.70 a barrel earlier but is currently just 31 cents a barrel above last night’s settlement at $100.22 a barrel.  

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