A weakened US dollar helped lift the oil market

20 May 2022

NBP future market opened weaker on Thursday

NBP future market opened weaker on Thursday and continued to release premium throughout the session. An LNG supply glut pressured near curve contracts, leading to a 13.34p loss on the front month which settled at 168.74p per therm, its lowest price of the current week so far.  The UK has been key in the regasification of gas before exporting it to the Continent since the invasion of Ukraine. Exports of gas to Belgium were at 58MCM yesterday while 15MCM was sent to the Netherlands via the BBL. Losses further along the curve were also clear, Winter-22 shed 10.56p to close at 236.94 pence per therm while the remaining summer months lost 14.10p on average. The day ahead contract also wiped-out gains made in the previous session to close at 85.00 pence per therm.  

GB baseload power futures pushed lower on Thursday

GB baseload power futures pushed lower on Thursday, following the downward momentum in the wider energy complex. EU carbon prices were a major driver for power futures yesterday as EUA Dec-22 contract fell to €82.97 per tonne while the spot ended the session at €82.60 per tonne its lowest price since April 27. Near curve contracts seen the largest losses with the June baseload power contract settled at £168.00/MWh, down £10.50 while Winter-22 shed £4.50 to close at £236.50/MWh. The day ahead power contract moved in the opposite direction to close up £17.38 at £117.00/MWh 

 Oil prices continued to slump during the opening hours of Thursday’s session

Oil prices continued to slump during the opening hours of Thursday’s session, as the market took direction from a weak global economic outlook. Stock markets tumbled in the US and Europe with inflation climbs and recession fears intensifying.  Brent front month opened at $109.30 before dipping to a low of $105.13, the downward pressure was short lived as the contracts settled marginally above the previous close at $112.04 a barrel. A weakened US dollar helped lift the market, as the majority of Brent transactions are done in dollars. The currency was weighed down by a fall in Treasury yields. WTI front continued to trade above Brent for the third consecutive session, settling at $112.21 a barrel.  

The wider energy mix has also opened slightly lower today

The UK gas market has continued on from yesterday’s downward sentiment with the front month opening the session at 154.65p this morning, down 14.09p from yesterday. NBP prompt prices are yet to trade, however the UK system has opened 10MCM long this morning at 232MCM. Demand continues to be above seasonal norm with the help from strong export demand to Europe. The wider energy mix has also opened slightly lower today, with the Brent front month currently trading at $111.85 down 19 cents while EUA Dec-22 contract is at €83 per tonne, down 45 cents.     
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