Brent crude has surpassed the $120 per barrel range

30 May 2022

Prompt contracts bounced back during Friday’s session

Prompt contracts bounced back during Friday’s session on the back of planned maintenance at Norway’s Troll gas field which effected 19MCM. The day ahead contract gained 50.90p to close at 143.15 pence per therm while the weekend contract settled at 151.05p. Upward momentum filtered into the front month June which gained 8.91p to settle at 153.36 pence per therm. Buying support also fed into the contract which peaked at 155.61p as market participants closed out opened positions for the front month. Further along the curve contracts also tilted higher, particularly the front season Winter-22, gaining 8.53p to settle at 245.52 pence per therm.

Near term GB baseload power futures mirrored the gas market

Near term GB baseload power futures mirrored the gas market on Friday, with June the front month gaining £9.50/MWh to settle at £166.50/MWh while the remaining summer months gained £2.68/MWh on average. The EUA Dec-22 contract slipped marginally to settle at €84.01/ tonne down from €85.01 in the previous session. The prompt power market also edged higher on Friday as the NBP market with the day ahead settled at £117.79/MWh, up £16.15/MWh from the previous session.

 Brent crude contracts climbed to a two-month high

Brent crude contracts climbed to a two-month high on Friday following a week of strong upward sentiment, with the Brent front month peaking at $120.40 before settling at $119.43. Supply pressure continues to support the market due to the ongoing likelihood of a European embargo on Russian oil which could displace 2.5 million barrel per day. OPEC would be unlikely to fill the gap as the group failed to reach April’s targets by 2.6 million barrels and the group also confirmed they will stick to its plan to increase July’s output to only 432,000 barrels. Oil prices were also supported by a fall in the US dollar as rate hikes are expected.

UK gas prices have continued on from Friday’s upward sentiment

UK gas prices have continued on from Friday’s upward sentiment this morning, with the front month opening the session at 157.00p and last trading at 165.00 pence per therm. Within day is also in positive territory at 159.00p up 15.85p from the previous session. UK demand is at 261MCM this morning, 96MCM above seasonal norm. Brent crude has surpassed the $120 per barrel range this morning and is currently at $120.30. As the supply outlook for oil remains bullish with the US about to start its summer driving season and the EU leaders meet again today to progress Russian oil sanctions.  
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