The EU reached an agreement to ban up to 90% of oil imports from Russia

31 May 2022

GB gas demand rose by around 20% on Monday

GB gas demand rose by around 20% on Monday to 266MCM as wind generation dropped in on the day.  The system ran short later in the session providing support to the prompt which had already opened higher.  The spot price settled 6.90p higher while the day ahead product gained 7.10p.  The issues with Norwegian imports improved on the day but flows through the Langeled line remained restricted at 45MCM.  On the curve, early gains remained throughout the session despite some oscillation in prices at the front of the curve.  The June contract was heavily traded on its last day as Front month on the ICE trading platform and closed 12.55p higher at 165.91p.

GB baseload futures settled higher for a second session in a row

GB baseload futures settled higher for a second session in a row as the near curve was supported by gains on the NBP futures market.  The June contract added £4.50/MWh to close at £171.00/MWh.  Declines in carbon limited gains on longer contracts.   Carbon EUAs eased by around 1.0% yesterday with the spot closing at €82.84. Wind generation out turned at around 2.0GW on Monday which was less than 33.0% of the average levels for month.  This helped push prompt prices higher on the day.  The forecast for below average temperatures and low wind for the remainder of the week added to the upside.

Brent settled higher for the eighth session in succession

Brent settled higher for the eighth session in succession yesterday as the EU continued discussions on the Russian oil embargo.  The Group were close to an agreement to limit imports of Russian oil with Hungary still holding out for concessions.  The tight supply has been supporting prices lately as Brent has gained $12.56 a barrel over the last eight days. In the U.S. the driving season got underway last weekend which is expected to see demand rise for the summer.  OPEC+ have continually signalled they will not increase output above the agreed level of 432,000 barrel per day for July.

In the gas markets near futures have opened with strong gains

The EU reached an agreement late last night to ban up to 90% of oil imports from Russia. Concessions were made for some pipeline oil supplies to continue for an unspecified period.  The markets opened firmer with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate adding over $2.00 a barrel with Brent last trading at $124.06 a barrel.  In the gas markets near futures have opened with strong gains from the get-go as July, the new front month for ICE has increased by over 10.00p to last trade at 192.00p.  Trading on the prompt has been slow with only the day ahead product trading significantly so far.
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