Carbon prices slumped by over 5.0% yesterday

The near curve on the NBP settled lower on Monday

The near curve on the NBP settled lower on Monday after the UK holidays last week while the prompt moved higher on lower Norwegian supplies.  The July contract settled at the lowest level since mid-January yesterday as the contract fell by 9.17p to close at 150.17p. Contracts out to the winter declined by 4.25p on average while the longer curve recorded gains on Monday.  Wind generation is forecast to curb gas demand in the UK for the back half of the week, however, maintenance works on the Troll field and Kollsnes is expected to restrict supplies from Norway this week and the prompt reacted to that news yesterday.

The GB baseload power curve settled in a similar vein to the NBP gas futures

The GB baseload power curve settled in a similar vein to the NBP gas futures market with near curve contracts easing yesterday while longer curve contracts firmed.  The remaining months of the summer settled an average of £3.00/MWh down, however, contracts past the winter gained around £3.6/MWh. Baseload for the day a head responded to forecasts for low wind generation for today, but the forecast improves for the rest of the week.  Carbon prices slumped by over 5.0% yesterday after reports that the EU parliament is looking to increase restrictions on financial investors in the EU ETS market.

 Crude oil prices continued to edge higher on Thursday and Friday

Crude oil prices continued to edge higher on Thursday and Friday, but trading was choppy yesterday as Brent settled 21 cents a barrel down at $119.51 a barrel.  Brent traded above the $120 a barrel mark several times after news that Saudi Arabia increased prices for its Asian customers by more than was expected.  The market is expected to tighten as demand in China is expected to rebound this month with Shanghai reopening after Covid-19 lockdowns.  Last week OPEC responded to calls for an increase in production and agreed to double the scheduled increase for July and August to 648,000 barrels per day, but the market remains sceptical that the group can meet those targets.

NBP futures have opened softer this morning

NBP futures have opened softer this morning with near months down between 5.00p and 10.00p.  Contracts past the summer have still to open but the bid/ offer spreads are lower than yesterdays close.  The opening trades for the spot and day ahead are up from yesterday and the GB gas system is tight this morning with the National Grid showing supplies lag demand by just 2MCM.  Flows from Norway remain curtailed due to maintenance, but LNG send out at 50MCM is meeting around 21.0% of today’s demand.  Crude oil prices have declined this morning with the last trade for Brent going through at $119.06 a barrel.    

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