Unplanned Norwegian outage lifted NBP prompt contracts yesterday

NBP prompt contracts made modest gains on the back of an unplanned outage

The UK gas system was under supplied throughout the session for Monday which supported prompt prices on the day. Unplanned outages at Norwegian facilities cut upstream supply by 54MCM yesterday. The undersupply coupled with the limited wind forecast for coming sessions helped push the NBP spot and day ahead contracts higher by over 60.00p.  The futures market was more subdued but the near curve contracts settled higher on the prompt led gains.  The July contract gained 7.47p to close at 153.71p, while the winter contract settled at 242.25p, up 1.18p.

EUA carbon prices fell drifted lower

The front two months on the GB baseload power curve reversed Friday’s losses yesterday while contracts from the winter out settled mixed. July settled £3.00/MWh higher at £162.50/MWh. Carbon prices eased on Monday with EUAs falling by around 1.0% or an average of 84 cent per tonne, while UKAs settled around 0.8% lower. Wind generation is forecast lower for Tuesday which propped up baseload power prices while strong gains on the NBP prompt also added support. At the close the day ahead product was £26.00/MWh higher at £160.00/MWh.

 Crude oil market remained volatile yesterday

The crude oil markets were volatile during trading on Monday, but concerns of tight supplies edged it on the day as both benchmarks settled 26 cents a barrel higher.  Capacity has been hit by sanctions on Russian oil and unrest in Libya which has closed two more export terminals over the weekend.  A strong dollar curbed gains on the day as further interest rate hikes are expected from the U.S. Fed, while fears that an outbreak of Covid-19 in Beijing added to demand woes.  At the close, Brent settled at $122.27 a barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, settled at $120.93 a barrel.

UK gas prices are in positive territory this morning

NBP natural gas futures have opened with significant gains this morning with July and August both over 10.00p up.  The winter contract has not traded but the bid/ offer spread suggests the contract will trade between 5.00p and 7.00p higher on opening.  Trading for the prompt is subdued after yesterday’s sharp gains while the GB gas system is short again this morning.  Demand is forecast at 219MCM, and supplies are at 208MCM.  Norwegian imports are down at 33MCM due to maintenance and outages while LNG send out is nominated at almost 40MCM for today.  Brent had traded up to $123.79 a barrel earlier but last exchanged at $123.15, up 88 cents a barrel.

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