UK gas prices struggled to maintain direction

The UK gas market experienced another volatile day

The UK gas market experienced another volatile day of trading and though the final settlement prices were only marginally up on the previous session, significant spreads were observed through the day. Prices struggled to maintain direction and early pressure saw the front month of November trade in a range between a high of 349.76p and a low of 300.00p before settling at 325.02p. The same swings were less apparent further out on the curve with moderate gains sustained. The summer 2023 contract added 12.63p to end the day at 410.92p per therm. The spot market recovered some of the recent losses with the within day and day ahead prices both surging roughly 55.00p to settle at 175.05p per therm.  

  GB baseload power market pushed higher

The GB baseload power market pushed higher during the session yesterday as a strong NBP gas market supported prices. Power futures rose broadly for the second session in a row, although gains were more modest than Wednesday. Q1 2023 gained £14.00/MWh through the session yesterday as risk remains focussed on the latter winter months. December 2022 went against the grain falling by £5.30/MWh. Mild temperatures near or above seasonal averages and strong wind generation continue to pressure prices lower.  The day ahead contract gained £23.99 to settle at £114.30/MWh  

 Brent crude prices continued to push higher

Brent crude prices continued to push higher for a fourth consecutive day yesterday after the OPEC+ announcement of a larger than expected 2 million barrel a day cut to production from November. The figure of 2 million includes current under production though and the true cut to current output levels is likely to be in the region of 1 to 1.1 million barrels a day. However, the cut still exceeds what Western consumers, particularly the US are comfortable with. Contracts for a December delivery added a further $1.05 to finish trading at $94.24 a barrel.  

 UK gas futures have opened lower this morning

UK gas futures have opened lower this morning with NBP contracts for the front month of November last trading at 290.00p down 35.02p on yesterday’s close. Although activity has been limited with multiple contracts yet to trade, the same declines are apparent where activity is taking place. The spot and day ahead contracts have yet to trade. The UK system is currently well supplied with a GB gas demand forecast of 342.8MCM for the day. Brent crude prices have yet to trade this morning.    

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