Crude oil prices have been on the rise

09 November 2022

The GB gas system running a touch short

The gas markets continue to be very responsive to any news of supply issues and yesterday’s outage at the Oseberg gas field prompted some buying activity on the near contracts.  With the GB gas system running a touch short, the prompt responded with the spot and day ahead products opening up to 15.00p higher, these gains were pared back later in the session with news that the outage should be resolved within two days. Near curve contracts opened between 5.00 and 15.00p higher and these gains were maintained throughout the session.  The December contract settled 16.37p higher at 283.81p while gas for next summer’s delivery finished at 293.32p, up 9.47p.  

 GB baseload power futures settled mixed

GB baseload power futures settled mixed on Tuesday as near curve contracts declined while contracts from next summer out settled slightly higher. The front month closed £1.25/MWh lower while the February closed £64.50/MWh down at £500.50/MWh.  Carbon EUAs declined with the spot closing at €76.05, down €1.66 per tonne. Wind generation is forecast to fall for the next couple of days but still remain above average for the time of year.  Baseload for the day ahead settled £23.91/MWh higher at £104.53/MWh.  

Brent slipped by $2.56 a barrel on Tuesday

Brent slipped by $2.56 a barrel on Tuesday with concerns of slowing demand in China rose as Covid-19 outbreaks surged through many cities.  Crude oil prices had been on the rise with the hope of a recovery in China on the back of recent reports that restrictions were to be relaxed.  The EU ban on Russian oil, which is set to start on December 5th, had also contributed to the recent upside with supplies expected to tighten further.  Adding to downside yesterday were industry reports showing U.S. crude oil stocks increased by more than expected over the last week.  The official government report from the E.I.A. will be a focus for the market when it is released later today.  

NBP futures opened softer

NBP futures opened softer by up to 7.00p this morning but latest trades have seen the front month retrace earlier losses and trade close to yesterdays close. Further out contracts are still to get going but the bid/ offer spreads are suggesting the seasons will open slightly lower.  Prompt prices are trading lower with the day ahead down 1.55p to 97.50p despite the gas system showing a deficit of 7MCM against today’s forecast demand of 256MCM.  Brent crude has fallen by 42 cents to $94.94 a barrel with demand concerns weighing.
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