NBP settles lower after volatile session

09 January 2023

NBP futures settle lower after a choppy session on Friday

It was a choppy session in the GB gas markets on Friday with prices flipping between losses and gains before the curve settled lower while the prompt ended the day a touch higher.  Temperatures are expected to drop closer to normal in the week ahead and this propped up the prompt on Friday with the spot and day ahead products adding 13.00p and 11.45p respectively.  Wind generation is forecast to remain above average for the week and this should temper demand while up to 15 LNG shipments are due at UK ports before the end of the month which weighs on the near curve.  The February contract declined by 12.73p to 182.73p having traded up to 191.90p earlier in the day.  Contracts from the summer out settled between 5.50p and 7.50p lower.  

GB baseload prices retreat

The GB baseload futures market posted marginal losses on Friday as the front month settled £1.00/MWh down at £179.50/MWh.  Over the week the front month shed £46.00/MWh while contracts from the summer out declined by up £34.50/MWh last week.  In the carbon markets, EUAs reversed the previous day’s gains with the spot settling at €74.80 per tonne, done 86 cent. Baseload for the day ahead moved higher on Friday with demand expected to pick up this week.  The contract added £21.54/MWh to settle at £129.00/MWh.  Wind generation is expected to remain above average for the week ahead and this limited the gains on the day.  

Crude oil ends week $4.89 lower

Crude oil prices traded sideways on Friday with Brent settling 12 cents down at $78.57 a barrel but week on week was $4.89 a barrel lower.  The U.S. benchmark, rose by 10 cents a barrel on the day as the markets weighed up recession concerns with possible demand growth in China as the boarders are set to reopen.  Conflicting reports from the U.S. showed November’s Services industry activity contracted for the first time in over two years while December’s unemployment rate was back to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5%.  The European Central Bank is expected to continue to increase interest rates despite last month’s results which showed the inflation rate had lowered across the Euro zone..  

Crude oil firms significantly in early trading this morning

Crude oil prices have firmed this morning with Brent $2.70 a barrel up at $81.27 as China reopens its boarders boosting hopes for increased demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer.  The GB gas markets are more muted with the front month, February, last trading close to Friday’s settlement having opened at higher 183.00p. Contracts further along the curve are within +/- 3.00p of Friday’s close.  On the prompt, it’s been a slow start with the day ahead just 0.50p higher at 159.00p and there’s little else to comment on. GB gas demand is pitched at 260MCM for today and supplies are lagging by 9MCM.      
Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services