Tuesday signalled a reversal of sentiment as prices retraced
Following an uptick in NBP prices on Monday, Tuesday signalled a reversal of sentiment as prices retraced the gains of the previous day. The UK received a total of 81 deliveries of LNG in Q4 2022, almost double the number received during the same period for 2021. The final supply mix for the UK for 2022 saw LNG make up nearly 20.00% of the total gas consumption. The ample supply of LNG on the system is set to continue with 12 vessels due to dock at British facilities over the next 14 days. Contracts for the front month of February slipped 12.34p to finish the day at 171.30p a therm, while the upcoming summer 2023 contract closed down 10.67p at 181.60p a therm. The within day and day ahead contracts also declined by an average of 14.50p to 160.60p and 154.50p a therm respectively as wind generation averaged well above seasonal normal levels with windy weather set to continue.
GB baseload prices reflected sentiment in the NBP market yesterday
GB baseload prices reflected sentiment in the NBP market yesterday as the gains made on Monday were reversed. The front month of February declined by £12.00/MWh to settle at £175.00/MWh with a similar drop of £11.50/MWh noted for the summer 2023 contract which settled at £172.50/MWh. High levels of wind generation helped pressure the day ahead contract which slipped £21.98/MWh to end the day at £106.72MWh. Carbon prices also reversed direction yesterday and released some of Monday’s gains with the EUA spot ending the day at €77.87 a tonne, a decline of 56 cent.
Crude oil traded relatively flat
Crude oil traded relatively flat yesterday with only nominal gains made on the day. Global demand forecast by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been revised upward and is expected to average 101.10m barrels per day in 2023, with a further increase to 102.80m barrels a day in 2024. Much of this increase is expected to be due to economic activity in non-OECD countries like China and India, with US crude oil production anticipated to rise by 0.40 million barrels a day by 2024. Contracts for the front month of March pushed 45 cent higher to settle at $80.10 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate also rose moderately during a relatively flat session, with the February contract gaining 49 cent to end the session at $75.12 a barrel.
Carbon prices have softened slightly
UK gas prices have opened lower this morning for contracts which have traded. The front month of February most recently traded at 166.00p per therm, a decline of 5.30p while the summer 2023 contract has traded down 6.35p at 175.25 per therm. The system is currently operating with a shortfall of 18.20 MCM against a demand of 353.90 MCM. On the prompt, the within day contract has yet to trade, while the day ahead contract last traded down 3.25p at 157.75p per therm. Brent crude has yet to trade this morning while carbon prices have softened slightly. The December 2023 EUA most recently traded down 45 cent at €80.35 a tonne.