NBP gas contracts retreated on Thursday

03 February 2023

The largest declines were observed on the prompt

Having made modest gains for two days, NBP gas contracts retreated on Thursday. Once more, overall movements were reasonably modest, with a focus on the near-curve. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have approved the initial restart of operations at the Freeport LNG facility, the return of which could see US LNG export capacity increase by about 17.00%. A downward pressure was maintained throughout the session yesterday which saw contracts for the front month of March slipping 8.10p to settle at 143.91p per therm. Further out declines were more subdued, with the summer 2023 contract shedding 5.76p to close at 150.75p per therm. The largest declines were observed on the prompt, with the spot and day ahead dropping 8.00p and 9.55p, to close at 145.05p and 141.50p respectively.  

GB baseload prices flipped direction yesterday

After recording gains over the previous sessions, GB baseload prices flipped direction yesterday and pushed lower. Once more echoing movements in the NBP markets, declines were most apparent for near-curve baseload contracts. The front month of March shed £9.00/MWh to close at £143.50/MWh, while further out the summer 2023 contract slipped £4.50/MWh ending the day at £151.00/MWh. Baseload for the day ahead was unchanged and carbon EUAs released some of their recent gains, with the December 2023 EUA contract falling by €1.70 to close at €93.75 a tonne.  

Trading was reasonably flat on Thursday

Trading was reasonably flat on Thursday with little overall movement in crude oil markets. Signs that US inflation has begun to cool could mean an increasing demand for oil in the coming months, however figures released by the Energy Information Administration this week showed a continued rise in inventories suggesting demand remains sluggish. At the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, ministers agreed to retain the current output policy of reducing production by 2 million barrels a day or around 2.00% of global demand until the end of 2023 to support prices. Contracts for an April delivery dipped 67 cent to finish the day at $82.17 a barrel.  

Markets have opened with gains observed

The markets have opened with gains observed for the UK gas futures contracts which have traded so far. Contracts for the front month of March have traded up 5.03p at 149.00p per therm, while the summer 2023 contract has gained 2.75p trading at 153.50p per therm. The system is operating with a fully covered demand of 356.30MCM this morning while on the prompt, the spot has yet to trade and the day ahead has jumped 8.50p to trade at 150.00p per therm. Crude oil has traded marginally lower this morning with the front month of April down 16 cent at $82.01 a barrel.    
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