Carbon EUAs rose by almost 1.0% yesterday

20 July 2023

Gas Market

The energy markets remained on edge yesterday as early morning losses to NBP futures were reversed and prices moved into positive territory through the afternoon.  Gains to the front months were over 5.00p at one stage but these were pared back and at the close the August contract settled 1.18p higher at 67.87p.  Contracts further out retained more of the premium with the Winter contract closing at 125.68p up 3.81p from the previous session’s settlement.  Prompt prices settled mixed on the day with news of another outage expected to curb Norwegian gas flows by up to 10mcm for two days, however, nominations through Langeled increased to 61mcm on Wednesday and are higher for Thursday.  

Power Market

Stronger carbon prices added to the upside from the NBP curve to support GB baseload futures yesterday.  The front month was the sole outlier recording a minor loss on the day, closing at £73.00/MWh.  Contracts past the remaining summer months averaged gains of £2.50/MWh with the Winter contract adding £1.90/MWh to settle at £119.90/MWh. Baseload for the day ahead eased on forecasts for higher wind generation for Thursday, the contract settled £1.30/MWh lower at £80.28/MWh.  Carbon EUAs rose by almost 1.0% with the Spot closing at €87.27 per tonne.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices rose by over a dollar a barrel on Wednesday, but the gains failed to hold up as a late sell off pressured prices.  Earlier in the session crude oil prices were buoyed by the latest inventory report from the Energy Information Administration which showed U.S. reserves of crude oil fell to 457.4 million barrels, a drop of 708,000 barrels over the week. China has pledged to roll out a strategy to expand consumption after a string of disappointing economic results lately and this also propped up prices early in the session.  At the close, Brent was 17 cents a barrel down at $79.46 a barrel while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate settled at $75.35, down 40 cents a barrel.  

Markets this morning

The GB gas system is recovering from an early deficit this morning and is now forecast just 2mcm shy of today’s demand of 179mcm.  Norwegian gas imports through the Langeled pipeline are nominated higher at 66mcm for today.  Prompt prices opened slightly higher with the Spot last trading at 66.50p while the Day ahead has gone through at 66.25p. On the NBP curve, near futures opened softer but latest trades for the front months have edged into positive territory with August at 68.20p which is 0.33p higher while the Winter contract opened at 127.50p and hasn’t traded since.  
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