The UK gas market has extended gains this morning

25 September 2023

Gas Market

NBP futures posted modest gains on Friday, with the front month October continuing recent trends with the largest upward trajectory due to more concerns about Norwegian gas supply.  Gassco published multiple changes to maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities which signal slightly more capacity being cut for the end of September and October and more outages for next Summer. October posted its fourth consecutive positive day with movements over the past five days and is up 10.02 pence per therm. The contract traded as high as 107.20p in late morning trading but slowly eased off highs in the afternoon session, settling at 102.16p, an increase of 1.59p. Contracts along the curve traded in a tighter range, with Winter-23 posting a 1.04p gain on the day, closing at 123.86p. On the prompt, The Within-day and Day-ahead contracts settled 8.50p and 6.52p higher respectively due to continued outages on Norwegian capacity.

Power Market

GB baseload futures had modest gains on Friday tracking a 7.8% spike in UKA Dec-23 and the fractional gains made by the UK gas market. Most of the volatility was at the front of the curve with October settling £4.05/MWh higher at £91.80/MWh. The Day-ahead contract had settled £3.90/MWh lower after a volatile week of trading. EUA carbon markets extended gains on Friday after strong German auction results and strengthening TTF gas prices. The EUA Dec-23 contract settled 46 cent higher at €85.29 a tonne.

Oil Market

Brent crude oil was relatively unchanged on Friday but closed the week lower on profit-taking and as markets weighed supply concerns stemming from Russia’s fuel export ban against demand woes from future rate hikes. Russia’s temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to most countries is expected to tighten supplies. The ban will bring new uncertainty into an already tight global refined product supply picture and the prospect that the impacted countries will be seeking to bid up cargoes from alternative suppliers. U.S. federal reserve officials warned of further rate hikes. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Brent crude front month November settled 3 cents lower at $93.27 a barrel.

Markets this morning

The UK gas market has extended gains this morning buoyed by news of the shutdown of the Skarv gas field in Norway over the weekend. The extension of this maintenance until October 8th will keep 22 mcm/d extra offline. October posted a high of 112.00 pence per therm but has retraced some of the gains and is currently trading at 109.62p, an increase of 7.46p from Fridays close. Further along the curve, Winter-23 last traded at 130.2p although it hasn’t traded in the last hour and the bid ask spread would suggest the next exchange will be around the 128p mark. On the prompt, the Within Day and Day-ahead are currently trading 5.70 on average higher on the day.
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