Gas Market
As optimism increased yesterday for a temporary truce in the Israel Hamas conflict and the release of the hostages, prices declined to their lowest levels seen since the Hamas attack on the 7th of October. With Q1-24 having previously traded in a 121.75p/th to 152.40 p/th range since the attack, the contract closed at 117.87p/th yesterday evening. The optimism and declining prices weren’t confined to the front quarter, with the next two seasons, Summer-24 and Winter-24 both following similar trajectories. Summer-24 has closed above 120p/th on over 65% of the traded days since the Hamas attack and is now at its lowest point since the 6th of October. Despite the declines over recent days, the contract is still some 11 pence above its lowest traded level since the 6th of June when it closed at 102.42p/th.
Power Market
Taking direction from the bearish NBP gas market GB baseload curve prices all declined on Tuesday. Q1-24 shed over £3.00/MWh while the Summer-24 contract fell by £2.00/MWh closing at £98.50/MWh. Unlike its gas equivalent, the baseload power summer contract is still above the lowest level recorded since the Hamas attack. On November 6th the contract declined to £95.18/MWh, 3% lower than current levels. Taking direction from the bearish NBP gas market GB baseload curve prices all declined on Tuesday. Q1-24 shed over £3.00/MWh while the Summer-24 contract fell by £2.00/MWh closing at £98.50/MWh. Unlike its gas equivalent, the baseload power summer contract is still above the lowest level recorded since the Hamas attack. On November 6th the contract declined to £95.18/MWh, 3% lower than current levels.
Oil Market
Following two sessions where gains were posted crude oil markets looked to be declining Tuesday only for late activity to cause oil for delivery in January to increase by 13 cents to close at $82.45 a barrel. Prices increased on Monday ahead of the OPEC+ group of oil producers scheduled meeting on the 26th of November, following OPEC+ sources stating that supply cuts were likely to continue or even increase in 2024. With the looming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, it appears as if traders took profits and closed their positions ahead of the American trading hubs closing on Thursday which may have fed into the late buying activity on Tuesday evening. Despite the recent uptick oil has fallen by 16% since late September due to fears of a global economic slowdown and worries regarding global demand, while the U.S. continued to produce crude at record levels.
Markets this morning
Following two sessions where gains were posted crude oil markets looked to be declining Tuesday only for late activity to cause oil for delivery in January to increase by 13 cents to close at $82.45 a barrel. Prices increased on Monday ahead of the OPEC+ group of oil producers scheduled meeting on the 26th of November, following OPEC+ sources stating that supply cuts were likely to continue or even increase in 2024. With the looming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, it appears as if traders took profits and closed their positions ahead of the American trading hubs closing on Thursday which may have fed into the late buying activity on Tuesday evening. Despite the recent uptick oil has fallen by 16% since late September due to fears of a global economic slowdown and worries regarding global demand, while the U.S. continued to produce crude at record levels.
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22 November 2023
