The NBP gas market has opened meekly this Monday morning, with all traded contracts in decline.

11 March 2024

Gas Market

Gas contracts bounced back from Thursday’s losses in early trading on Friday morning. The front month traded as high as 67.27p/th before declining across much of the day, falling to 64.5p/th in early afternoon. However, in contrast to Thursday, gas prices increased in the final hours of the week’s trading, with the April contract closing at 65.79p, a day-on-day gain of 0.49p/th. A similar pattern was played out on the Summer-24 contract as it closed at 65.95p. Contracts for 2024 were all impacted, with markets likely concerned by continued attacks by Houthi militant on shipping routes in the Red Sea. Illustrating the near-term impact of the attacks, contracts for delivery in 2025 and onwards continued their recent decline, with the strong fundamentals continuing to weigh on long term pricing.

Power Market

Wind generation was forecasted to drop to seasonal norms for the new week, and as a result an increase in gas fired generation will be required to meet demand. The drop in wind generation caused Day ahead baseload contracts to increase by 13% in Friday’s session. Contracts on the near curve made minor losses, taking direction from a declining UKA carbon market rather than the NBP gas market with the Summer-24 down a mere 27p. The Dec-24 declined by 84 cents closing at €58.60/tonne with a volatile TTF market the main driver behind the carbon movements. Also impacting prices was a weak German auction clearing at €57.10/tonne. Despite Friday’s losses, week on week has seen the allowance market increase by 3.6%.  

Oil Market

Oil prices declined in trading on Friday as the market reacted to the latest economic data from the US which painted a picture of a slowing economy.  Latest data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that the unemployment rate rose while the rate at which wages were increasing deaccelerated. Brent front month closed Friday’s session at $82.08 a barrel, decline of a 88 cents on the day, and a week-on-week loss of $1.47/bbl. The Nymex traded WTI did not fare much better posting day on day losses of 92 cents per barrel and an overall weekly decline $1.96, finishing the week at $78.01/bbl. Behind much of the week’s decline has been global economic performance, and the likelihood of the US interest rate cut being pushed back beyond June.  

Markets this morning

The NBP gas market has opened meekly this Monday morning, with all traded contracts in decline. The front month, April-24, has shed 2.3p in early exchanges. The front season has also experienced a sharp decline with the summer-24 contract trading at 64.4p/th bringing prices back to where they were at the end of February. Weather forecasts are predicting a rise in temperatures across the rest of the week which is impacting on the NBP gas market. The EUA Carbon market is also in decline tracking the early losses on the TTF gas hub. Brent crude is currently trading just above Friday’s close with markets concerned with waning demand in China.