Prompt prices shrugged off a short gas system on Monday

12 March 2024

Gas Market

Prompt prices shrugged off a short gas system on Monday as the Spot and Day ahead products closed around 3.50p per therm lower while near futures extended early losses. The GB gas system was 8mcm shy with an hour to go in the trading day after a compressor failure curbed gas flows from the Nyhamna field.  According to the Norwegian gas operator up to 24mcm of capacity could be impacted by these maintenance works but smaller outages were also reported at the Troll gas field and the Perenco Bacton production facility. Near curve contracts eased slowly but losses were increased to almost 4.00p as the front month closed just above the low of the day at 62.37p.  The Summer-2024 contract yielded 3.30p and settled at 62.65p.

Power Market

Wind generation has been revised above average for the next two weeks and this combined with milder temperatures should ease demand for gas fired generation in the power stack. Both the prompt and the baseload curve retreated yesterday with the front month closing at £58.25/MWh, down £1.93/MWh. The Summer-2024 contract shed £2.60/MWh and settled at £58.88/MWh. Carbon EUAs recorded the greatest loss in three weeks on Monday as the market responded to weakness in the gas markets.  The Spot for EUAs shed €2.18 per tonne to settle at €54.32 which is just €3.67 per tonne above the recent low near the end of February.

Oil Market

The crude oil markets edged sideways on Monday with poor economic data from China and the U.S. vying with geopolitical unrest in the Middle East for direction.  Houthi rebels continued to attack shipping using the Red Sea corridor at the weekend and there was a report of an explosion near a vessel off Yemen’s Port of Saleef yesterday. U.S. inflation data is due for release on Tuesday, but recent job growth data showed an improvement however, there was a gain in the unemployment rates. As the market closed Brent for May delivery was 13 cents up at $82.21 a barrel.

Markets this morning

The outages in the North Sea seem to have been repaired as the GB gas system is forecast 5mcm long today with demand at 224mcm. On the prompt, the Day ahead is down a penny while on the curve, near months opened softer but are reversing off lows with April now showing a 0.28p gain on yesterday’s close. The Summer-2024 contract last traded at 61.80p, down 0.85p.  In the crude oil markets, Brent has gained 66 cents at $82.87 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East provide support.  Carbon EUAs contract for 2024 is down 72 cent to €55.50 per tonne.