May, the new front month on ICE has fallen by 0.81p to 68.75p this morning.

28 March 2024

Gas Market

At the close of play on Wednesday NBP futures were a touch higher after some flip-flopping through the session. European coal prices increased after the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, but this had little impact on gas prices yesterday. Near months traded in a tight range for the most part with focus on the April contract as it expired on ICE. The contracts for Quarter 2 and the Summer also ended on ICE yesterday and both closed with modest gains of less than a penny. April settled at 69.22p which was around a penny above the Day ahead price for March so far. The prompt failed to gain any traction yesterday as minor increases to the Spot and Day ahead from the early morning were held to the closing bell. Contracts for the weekend and next week eased on forecasts for lower gas demand going into the long weekend.

Power Market

There was no clear direction for GB baseload futures yesterday as the NBP curve edged slightly higher and carbon prices eased. The front month, April, settled £1.00/MWh down at £61.25/MWh while the Winter-24 contract closed at £78.00/MWh having added £1.00/MWh over the session. There were further losses recorded on the prompt as the Day ahead product eased by £4.43/MWh to settle at £58.41/MWh as supply margins are expected to widen. Carbon markets took early support from higher coal prices yesterday, but the premium was relinquished through the morning as prices moved into negative territory. At the close, the Dec-24 EUA contract was assessed at €62.45 per tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices have been largely flat over the week with yesterday’s loss of 16 cents a barrel for Brent bringing the weeks gain to just 14 cents a barrel. The dollar strengthened yesterday which weighed on crude oil prices as dollar traded commodities become more expensive to other currencies. The weekly official oil report from the Energy Information Administration was released yesterday and showed a 1.3m barrel increase in U.S. gasoline stocks which cast more doubts on demand growth in the world’s largest oil consumer. Crude oil inventories climbed by 3.2m barrels last week.

Markets this morning

Demand on the GB gas system is pitched at 195mcm for today and supplies are showing a comfortable 21mcm surplus. Prompt prices have eased with the Spot down by a penny in early trading. May has taken on front month status for the NBP curve and has fallen 0.81p to 68.75p. The Winter 24 contract is the new lead season on ICE and has gained 0.88p to last exchange at 84.30p although trading on this contract has been thin. Crude oil prices have opened stronger with the latest trade for Brent at $86.84 a barrel.