NBP Gas curve prices are retreating from early morning highs.

Gas Market

NBP gas prices nudged higher on Thursday as reduced Norwegian flows continued to make their presence felt on gas contracts. Flows were reduced due to a number of planned and unplanned outages but are all expected to return to production at some stage across Friday. The May-24 contract made strong gains, culminating in an intraday high of 77.00p/th before the upward momentum stalled prior to the close. The front month contract was assessed at 74.49p/th at the settlement, a day-on-day gain of 1.88p/th. The front season also increased further, taking direction from the increasing near curve and was assessed at 90.90p/th. The day ahead contract added 1.45p/th as the contract increased for the second consecutive session. The prompt market was buoyed by the reduced Norwegian flows and increased demand due to reduced wind generation and forecast of temperatures below seasonal norms market.  

Power Market

The gains on the NBP gas curve flowed through to the GB baseload market on Thursday as the majority of contracts stepped higher. Gains on the far curve were limited by a fall on UKA carbon markets. Day ahead power prices also continued to track higher. To date in April, Day ahead has performed well against the forward curve, but a recent drop in wind generation has forced the contract back in line with gas fired generation costs. The EUA carbon market continued its recent resurgence tracking European gas market higher. The Dec-24 contract increased to €68.41, an increase of €2.74/tonne over the last two sessions.  

Oil Market

  U.S. economic data continued to weigh on oil prices early on Thursday as the Brent front month appeared to be extending Wednesday’s losses for much of Thursday’s session. Data released by the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in almost two years. With PMI data showing a slowdown in manufacturing data, imports stepped in to fill the void but contributed to a return to accelerated inflation. The higher inflationary numbers are stoking fears that the Fed will not cut interest rates as was previously anticipated. However increased airstrikes by Israel on Rafah raised the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East leading to a late rally and an increase of 99 cents on the day with Brent front month closing at $89.01/bbl.  

Markets this morning

Gas prices opened in positive territory, with the front month opening at yesterday’s high of 77.00p/th before quickly declining. Maintenance on Ormen Lange and Oseberg are teetering out with flows expected to increase across today. The UK system is marginally short again this morning which is limiting the downside to prices at this early stage of proceedings. Oil prices are trading higher with supply concerns impacting on the market again following the airstrikes by Israel on Rafah. Carbon prices are taking the lead from the declining gas market with the Dec-24 trading 64 cents per tonne lower.