Norwegian gas supplies return after planned maintenance

13 May 2024

Gas Market

With the Norwegian seasonal maintenance ending without issues gas prices across Europe declined on Friday.  After a fairly directionless morning, fundamentals took over and the near months on the NBP settled an average of 2.50 per therm lower. Forecasts for warmer than normal temperatures along with increasing wind power is expected to keep gas demand suppressed into June.  Meanwhile LNG supplies in the UK received a top-up late on Thursday and a further cargo is expected by the end of the week while Dutch ports are anticipating up to five deliveries this week.  The fall in NBP futures on Friday meant the near months ended the week lower with the average loss at 2.30p.  

Power Market

GB baseload futures followed the NBP curve lower on Friday while a late switch in direction in carbon added pressure near the close of the session.  The front month, June, settled £1.83/MWh down at £65.63/MWh while the Winter-2024 closed at £82.20/MWh having posted a similar loss. Baseload for the Day ahead responded to forecasts for increased wind generation for the week ahead and settled £11.73/MWh lower at £61.16/MWh. The Dec-24 contract for EUAs peaked at €75.50 per tonne on Friday before falling almost €4.00 intra-day to settle at €71.69 per tonne after a sell off amid profit taking by investment funds.  The Dec-25 contract for EUAs settled at €74.59 down €1.86 per tonne day-on-day.

Oil Market 

Crude oil prices eased on Friday after the dollar made gains against a basket of currencies following statements from several Fed representatives who talked down the possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term.  Several key indicators for the U.S. economy are due next week including the latest inflationary data.  While recent monthly rates have been going the wrong way there are early signs that the inflation rate may be back on track for the world’s largest oil consuming nation which had spurred on hopes of an interest rate cut next month.  In China, consumer prices have risen for the third month raising hopes that demand is recovering for the world’s second largest oil consumer. Brent for July settled $1.09 down at $82.79 a barrel.

Markets this morning

GB gas demand is muted this morning at 145mcm while supplies are forecast 24mcm long.  Norwegian flows have stepped up after planned maintenance works and the Langeled line has nominations of 64mcm for today.  In the gas markets, trading for the prompt has yet to get going but NBP futures have opened lower. The front month is down over a penny at 71.65p while the Winter-2024 contract last traded at 91.60p, which is 1.05p down on Friday’s close.  Carbon EUAs have continued to weaken this morning while in the crude oil markets, Brent is slightly higher at $83.12 a barrel. Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services