Contracts across the NBP prompt and curve moved down on Monday, with losses continuing into this morning.

 Gas Market

Prices across the NBP’s prompt and curve shed value on Monday, with the biggest losses seen on the near months. The Spot shrugged off a short GB system and higher gas-for-power demand, instead seeking direction from the high storage levels from which withdrawals were making up for reduced pipeline supply from Norway. News that the duration of heaviest maintenance in the North Sea was shortened from four to two days also played into the weakness. Within day shed 2.05p to settle at 93.10p per therm. Further out, the downside continued as curve prices focused on strong storage levels of 92.60% across Europe. October-24 shed a significant 3.21p to settle the day at 92.94p per therm, its lowest level in a week. Winter-24 shed 2.61p day-on-day to close at 103.52p per therm.  

Power Market

The GB Baseload curve fell on Monday in line with losses seen across the NBP market. The biggest move was seen on the November-24 contract which shed $2.80/MWh to close at £90.65/MWh, while the new front month contract shed £1.75/MWh to finish the day at £79.00/MWh. Prompt movements were more bullish due to lower wind forecasts for the remainder of the week as well as outages at two nuclear facilities in the UK. The Day ahead contract increased by £3.94/MWh to close at £92.94/MWh, its highest since December 2023. The UK carbon market similarly shed value on Monday with UKAs for Dec-24 down by £0.75 a tonne to settle at £42.75 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices edged up slightly on Monday, although sentiment remained weak on expectations of higher OPEC+ production from October as well as ongoing signs of sluggish future demand in China and the U.S. Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding the groups most recent spate of supply cuts. Even more pessimism surrounding Chinese demand growth seeped into sentiment after news reached the market that China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) had hit a six-month low in August. Such economic weakness appears to be outweighing supply disruptions in Libya and risk related to the conflict in the Middle East. Front month Brent increased by just 59 cents to settle at $77.52 a barrel. While WTI for October delivery gained a modest 74 cents to close at $74.29 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

Yesterday’s downside has continued into this morning with losses seen across the NBP. Having opened the session at 92.39p, the October-24 contract last traded at 90.32p per therm, down 2.62p on Monday’s close. The Spot is also in decline despite the GB system currently operating in a slightly short position. Within day last traded at 90.50p per therm, down 2.60p on yesterday so far. Withdrawals from storage continue to make up for the loss of pipeline supplies due to maintenance. Crude oil prices are also in decline this morning as sluggish economic growth in China continues to overshadow the risk of supply disruptions in Libya. Front month Brent last traded at $76.97 a barrel, down 55 cents day-on-day.