Gas Market
The NBP Spot market was driven up on Monday as the GB system was expected to finish the day undersupplied as colder temperatures lifted domestic demand levels. The Within day contract posted the biggest gain of the day, increasing by 3.45p to end the session at 93.50p per therm. The upside fed into the rest of the prompt as the low temperatures are expected to stay for the rest of the week, while maintenance at the St. Fergus facility until 03 October could strain the system once again. Further out, gains across the curve were slightly more muted, with the near months averaging a day-on-day increase of 0.85p per therm. The escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to provide price support as the market weighed up the risk of disruptions to regional LNG supply. November-24 ended the session at 97.36p per therm, up 0.96p day-on-day.
Power Market
The Day ahead Baseload contract traded relatively flat day-on-day, gaining just £0.23/MWh, as strong wind forecasts countered upside from cooler than normal temperatures. Further out, the majority of curve contracts tracked gains on the NBP. However, on its last day trading as the front month, October-24 took a different approach, falling by £1.10/MWh to expire at £75.40/MWh.
European carbon prices unwound some of last week’s gains in a choppy session where the Dec-24 contract fell by 96 cents to end the day at €65.29 a tonne. UKAs followed a similar trend, with the Dec-24 and Dec-25 contracts shedding £0.81 and £0.27 a tonne respectively.
Oil Market
Crude oil markets continued their sideways trend on Monday, with modest losses experienced across Brent and WTI contracts. A rally across Chinese stock markets, which saw the biggest single-day gains in 16 years, did little to stir upside. Instead, prices held on to the strong supply outlook in light of the prospective increased Libyan and Saudi output. Given that there has been no major physical supply disruption since the escalation of the unrest in the Middle East, as well as the fact that Iran appears to have no appetite to enter the conflict, oil prices have remained unruffled. Front month Brent ended the day at $71.77 a barrel, down 21 cents on Friday’s close. WTI for November delivery fell by just £0.01 to end the month at $68.17 a barrel.
Markets this morning
After four straight days of gains, the front month is this morning trading below its previous close, last going through at 94.67p per therm, down 2.69p day-on-day. Although the Within day contract is yet to trade, Day ahead has also softened and was last observed at 91.50p per therm, down 1.10p on Monday. The GB system has once again opened short, however an increase in LNG sendout may be enough to mitigate the impact of ongoing maintenance outages. Crude oil prices are little changed on Monday’s close so far. Stronger supply prospects and tepid global demand growth continue to outweigh geopolitical concerns. Front month Brent last went through at $71.61 a barrel, just 16 cents down on the previous close.
01 October 2024
