Early losses across the NBP on Friday turned into gains by midday, largely due to news that the EU will implement storage filling targets for 2025  

Gas Market

With January-25 taking over as the front month on Friday after December-24’s expiry, the contract initially maintained its predecessor’s recent downward trend when the session opened. However, losses soon turned to gains around midday. An announcement from Centrica stating that the UK’s gas stores could be lower at the end of the winter compared to previous years, as well as further news that the EU will implement a set of intermediate storage filling targets for 2025 triggered gains across the curve. The new front month contract posted a 2.01p increase to end the session at 119.56p per therm. The release of an updated maintenance scheduled at St. Fergus which will reduce available pipeline import capacity in December fed into short-term gains. The Day ahead contract increased by 0.95p day-on-day to end the session at 116.30p per therm.  

Power Market

GB baseload futures tracked gains across the NBP gas market on Friday, with near months averaging a £0.45/MWh incline. The Winter-25 contract exhibited the largest day-on-day gain, posting a £1.15/MWh increase to end the session at £89.00/MWh. Forecasts for well above-average wind levels for this week provided downward pressure on the prompt market, with Day ahead easing by £4.25/MWh day-on-day to end the week at £95.13/MWh. A strong rally on the TTF market on Friday afternoon held up European carbon prices, despite experiencing a day-on-day fall in the morning session. EUAs for December-24 delivery gained 49 cents by the close to end the day at €68.39 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Oil prices edged down on Friday, almost wiping out the previous two days’ modest gains, with the front month Brent contract falling by 3.0% week-on-week. Easing pressure regarding supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, as well as the prospect of more ample supplies in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts, provided the downside. The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to December 5th from December 1st. At the meeting, OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts. Front month Brent fell by 34 cents to end the session at $72.94 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

Colder temperatures and lower wind speeds for the first half of this week, as well as nearly half of nuclear power generation capacity being offline for maintenance, have all conspired to drive up gas demand levels. Despite this, the GB system is operating in a long position this morning. Although trading on the Spot and prompt is yet to get going, the front month contract last went through at 121.10p per therm, up 1.06p on Friday’s close. European gas storage levels are currently at 85.5% fullness while UK storage levels currently sit at 73.0%.  Crude oil prices continue to edge sideways this morning, with the front month Brent contract offering a 39 cent discount to Friday’s close when it last transacted.