January settled 3.18p down at 103.00p on Friday , which brought the decline for the week to almost 13.00p per therm

Gas Market

After some oscillation in the early part of the session NBP futures resumed a downward trend leaving near months to close an average of 3.18p per therm lower.  Recent long range weather forecasts for a mild start to 2025 have eased concerns for gas storage levels in Europe.  This time last year storage levels for Europe were just shy of 90% of capacity but are currently at 78.2% fullness. GB gas demand is expected to ease over the weekend as wind generation is forecast to climb to over 20.0GW for Monday, having lingered well below average for much of the week.  The Spot declined by 2.55p on a comfortable gas system while the Day ahead for Monday yielded 3.77p.  The front month contract settled 3.18p down at 103.00p, which brought the decline for the week to almost 13.00p per therm.  

Power Market

GB baseload futures reacted to the decline witnessed on the NBP curve on Friday. The January contract settled £2.50/MWh lower for the day which brought the decline for the week to £9.25/MWh. A little further out the curve, the Summer contract fell by £1.45/MWh to £76.35/MWh.  Lower carbon also pressured the curve on Friday, with contract for EUAs out to 2026 down by a n average of €1.21 per tonne. Wind generation is expected to top 18GW on Monday which combined with forecasts for mild temperatures pressured the power prompt on Friday.  Baseload for Monday settled at £70.25/MWh, a fall of over 50.0% from Friday’s price.   

Oil Market

Oil prices increased about 2% on Friday, reaching a three-week high amid expectations of tighter supplies due to new sanctions on Russia and Iran and potential demand growth from lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. The EU agreed on a 15th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet, while front-month Feb 25 Brent crude rose $1.08 or 1.5% to $74.49 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, gained $1.27 to $71.29 per barrel. Addin to support on the day was the latest data from China, the world’s largest crude importer, which showed a rise in crude oil imports for November, the first increase in seven months. Brent marked its highest close since November 22, gaining almost 5% for the week.  

Markets this morning

NBP prompt and futures have both trading lower this morning, continuing the bearish momentum from last week with milder weather and high wind generation feeding into prices. Front month January is down 2.50p per therm at 100.50p/therm so far this morning. Quarter 1-25 and Summer 25 are each also down 2.35p and 2.44p respectively. Losses on the prompt are even more pronounced, with both the spot and DA falling below 100p/therm. The spot is down 5.45p at 98.25p/therm and the DA contract has shed 3.32p with the last trade going through at 98.5p/therm. Crude oil contracts have cooled slightly this morning after last week’s 5% rally. Front month Brent is down 45 cents, at $74.04 a barrel.