Friday was another volatile day on the NBP gas market, with prices opening strong in a continuation of Thursday’s upside.

Gas Market

Friday was another volatile day on the NBP, with the market opening strong in a continuation of Thursday’s upside. The afternoon session saw much of the near curve edge back down below the previous settlement, only to increase again before the close. News of the final statements by Presidents of both Ukraine and Russia in regards to the Russian gas transit deal supported the near curve, with Janaury-25 posting a 2.71p gain to close at 110.04p per therm. Prompt prices firmed on a downward revision to wind generation levels for the final week of the year, while the Spot was supported by a short gas system. Day ahead increased by 3.13p to settle at 108.53p per therm, while Within Day gained 2.63p day-on-day to close out the week at 108.50p per therm.  

Power Market

The gains experienced on the NBP gas market filtered into the GB Baseload curve on Friday. The front month contract increased by £1.20/MWh to settle at £93.50/MWh, while Q1-25 posted a gain of £1.25/MWh, settling at £91.43/MWh. In contrast, high wind output levels pressured prompt contracts, with Day ahead falling by 8.4% day-on-day to close at £69.88/MWh. The Weekend contract was weaker still, falling by 23.4% day-on-day. Trade was thin on Friday across the European carbon markets as the holiday break approached. Prices moved sideways as result of the thin liquidity, with the Dec-25 EUA contract conceding a 17 cent loss to close out the week at €67.62 a tonne.    

Oil Market

Crude oil prices remained rangebound on Friday, with upside limited by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding future demand growth. A report by JPMorgan issued on Friday sees the oil market moving from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as the bank forecasts non-OPEC+ supply increasing by 1.8 million barrels per day next year and OPEC output remaining at current levels. Meanwhile, the dollar’s climb to a near two-year high also weighed on oil prices, after the U.S. Federal Reserve said earlier in the week that it would be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025. Front month Brent gained just 6 cents day-on-day to close out the week at $72.94 a barrel. WTI for February delivery posted an 8 cent incline to settle at $69.46 a barrel.    

Markets this morning

The NBP curve opened firmer this morning in a continuation of last week’s gains. January-25 last transacted at 111.75p per therm, a gain of 1.71p on its previous close. The prompt market has also edged up, with Day ahead most recently observed at 110.00p per therm, up 1.47p day-on-day. An unplanned outage at the Norwegian Karsto processing plant scheduled to end on December 24th appears to be putting pressure on the GB system, which is currently operating at a deficit of 21.7 mcm per day. This is supporting the Spot market, with Within day up by 4.00p on Friday’s close. Crude oil prices are continuing their sideways trend, with front month Brent last going through at $72.89 a barrel, an increase of just 5 cents day-on-day.