Gas Market
NBP curve contracts spent much of Friday trading below their previous close until a late rally reversed direction. British Medium Range Storage (MRS) capacity dropped to a low of 22%, which exacerbated supply concerns. February-25 gained 1.23p to close the week at 124.73p per therm. The front quarter increased by 0.81p to settle the week at 122.11p per therm. The GB system was over 20mcm/day short on Friday morning but moved closer to balance as the day progressed, limiting upside on the Spot. Within day increased by just 0.28p day-on-day to close at 126.25p per therm. Strong winds forecast for over the weekend and Monday hampered any upside on the Day ahead, with the contract also moving down by 0.28p day-on-day to close at 124.75p per therm.
Power Market
The front month GB Baseload contract was supported by volatility on the NBP gas market on Friday. February-25 increased by £3.47/MWh to close the week at £106.10/MWh while March and April 2025 moved up by an average of £1.35/MWh day-on-day. Strong winds forecast for the weekend and Monday weighed on the prompt, with Day ahead falling by £2.34/MWh to end the week at £88.00/MWh.
European carbon spot prices settled at their highest level since November 2023 on Friday. The Spot EUA contract closed at €79.40 a tonne, up 89 cents day-on-day and 2.4% up week-on-week. UK Allowances were similarly firm with the Dec-25 contract up by £1.20 a tonne on Thursday’s close.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices continued to move sideways on Friday as the market waited patiently for pronouncements from U.S. President Donald Trump around tariffs and other orders that could be disruptive to global oil supplies. Trump has threatened 25% import tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports which could result in those volumes being diverted away from North America to Asian markets, possibly displacing Russian and Middle Eastern crude. Trump also demanded that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowers crude prices at the World Economic Forum last Thursday, although this request is likely to be rebuffed. The front month Brent contact fell by 21 cents day on day to close out the week at $78.50 a barrel, down 2.8% week-on-week.
Markets this morning
NBP curve prices have weakened this morning with the February-25 contract last going through at 121.27p per therm, a discount of 3.46p on its previous close. Although the Spot market has yet to trade, the Day ahead contract is also tracking south, having last transacted at 122.50p per therm, down 2.25p on Friday. Pipeline exports into the UK from Norway remain robust despite numerous supply niggles, while the LNG delivery schedule is also healthy, with 8 cargoes expected to arrive into the U.K. between today and February 7th. Crude oil prices continued their sideways run this morning. Front month Brent has edged up by just 5 cents, last going through at $78.55 a barrel.
27 January 2025
