Early gains of almost 4.00p for the front months were partially reversed through the afternoon

Gas Market

Unplanned outages at key Norwegian fields continued to support prompt prices early on Thursday while increased buying activity added support to the front of the curve.  February expired on the ICE platform yesterday and the contract traded up by almost 4.00p per therm on higher volumes before falling back in the afternoon.  The contract settled at 129.42p with a gain of 0.86p while March added 0.55p to close at 126.34p. Prompt prices eased back through the afternoon session too with news from Gassco that the issues at Karsto and Troll were resolved and the Spot settled 0.25p up at 131.00p while the Day ahead product closed almost flat at 131.65p.  Storage gas levels in Europe were at 55.1% yesterday and is still a concern to the market when compared to levels of 70.5% this time last year, however, LNG deliveries are ramping up with UK ports expecting up to 13 tankers over the next two weeks.  

Power Market

The early sharp rise to NBP futures fed into the baseload curve yesterday as near months added an average of £1.75/MWh. The front month, February, settled at £118.50/MWh and is due to expire on Friday. March will assume front month status from Monday and increased by £1.35/MWh to close at £104.60/MWh.  Carbon EUAs fell back off 15-month highs during yesterday’s session and contracts for Dec-25 and Dec-26 eased by 15 cents per tonne. Baseload for the Day ahead settled 11.8% or £13.96/MWh higher yesterday with support from lower wind forecasts.  Generation from wind was expected to contribute around 7.2GW or 22% of supplies on Thursday but could drop to around 12.5% of the stack for Friday.    

Oil Market 

Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday as investors focused on the tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest suppliers of crude oil to the United States. The White House reaffirmed Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as this coming Saturday but it’s unclear if oil is to be included. Front-month Brent crude settled up 29 cents at $76.87 a barrel on Thursday, while U.S. crude futures increased marginally to finish at $72.73 a barrel, up 11 cents from their lowest price this year on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the final set of U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on the Russian shadow oil tanker fleet is adding further pressure on Russian oil exports. Russia is likely to discuss their options at next week’s OPEC+ meeting but it’s unlikely to be able to increase output without agreeing to peace talks.  

Markets this morning

Energy markets across Europe have opened higher this morning and NBP futures are around 2.50p per therm up in early trading.  March, the new front month for the NBP curve, last exchanged at 128.82p, which is 2.48p above last night’s close. The summer is 2.23p up at 126.36p.  On the prompt the Day ahead has gained 2.85p with temperatures set to be lower early next week while lower wind generation will also add to gas demand. Carbon EUAs have reversed yesterday’s losses with contracts out to Dec-26 up by around 78 cent per tonne. Crude oil prices are down with the last trade for Brent going through at $76.25 a barrel.