The front month and season for the NBP shed around 10.74p per therm yesterday as gas prices tumbled over the session

Gas Market

The energy markets continued unwind premium following reports of possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine yesterday. NBP futures fell sharply from the off on Thursday morning and losses were extended through the session as March was 10.74p per therm down at the close, the largest one-day loss for the front month since 31-Oct-2023. Prompt prices shrugged off reports of unplanned outages at Troll and Kristin and tracked near curve contracts lower as the Day ahead also fell by over 10.00p.  While talks are still at an early stage, an end to the Russia Ukraine war could lead to a surplus of available gas supplies by the summer or winter, relieving concerns around gas storage levels and would pressure longer curve contracts.

Power Market

 A sharp decline in NBP futures and carbon EUAs pressured the GB baseload curve yesterday.  The front month settled at £102.50/MWh, which was a decline of £7.25/MWh day-on-day.  The Summer-25 product was assessed £7.00/MWh lower and closed at £95.50/MWh.  Carbon EUAs shed significant premium as wholesale gas prices tumbled across Europe.  The Dec-25 contract for European Allowances fell by €2.71 to €78.16 per tonne. Baseload for Friday was marked £3.86/MWh down as wind generation is forecast to rise on Friday and stay above the seasonal norm next week. Wind generation was around 7.5GW on Thursday but is expected to rise above 10.0GW for Friday.    

Oil Market

Early losses to crude oil prices were pared back on Thursday as both Brent and West Texas Intermediate settled marginally lower.  The global benchmark traded in a tight range yesterday as the April contract dipped to a low of $74.06 a barrel on early reports of possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, Trump’s decision to delay the latest tariff announcements to a start in April provided some hope that a trade war could be avoided and crude oil prices recovered most of the early losses leaving the April contract for Brent just 16 cents a barrel down at the close.  The March contract for WTI settled at $71.29 a barrel, down 10 cents.  

Markets this morning

NBP futures have opened lower and continued to tumble this morning as the front month last exchanged 6.10p lower at 118.15p per therm.  Contracts that have traded are between 4.50p and 6.20p down from yesterday’s close as the Ukraine President is to meet with the U.S. Vice President to discuss a possible resolution to the war later today at the Munich Security Conference.  Crude oil prices have ticked up after President Trump delayed the start of the latest round of tariffs until April which gives some hope that a trade war could be avoided.  Brent for April delivery last traded at $75.41 a barrel which is 39 cents up on last night’s close.