Gas Market
Ongoing talks and discussions to end the Russia-Ukraine war continued to weigh on NBP gas prices on Friday. With an end to the conflict closer than ever, risk premium has been dissipating out of contracts on the expectation that Europe could start taking Russian gas should a resolution be confirmed. A push for less rigid gas storage level requirements by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action also added to the downside. The March-25 contract ended the session at 122.26p per therm, down 1.99p day-on-day and down 13.4% from Monday’s close. Above normal temperatures for this week, coupled with a higher presence of renewables expected in the power stack over the coming days weighed on the prompt. The Day ahead contract fell by 2.35p day-on-day to end the session at 125.93p per therm.
Power Market
NBP losses exerted downward pressure on GB Baseload contracts on Friday. The March-25 contract shed £1.40/MWh to close out the week at £101.10/MWh, while the near months averaged losses of £1.32/MWh day-on-day. Forecasts for higher wind power production levels and warmer than normal temperatures encouraged the prompt market to decline, with the Day ahead contract falling by £10.80/MWh to close at £114.14/MWh.
European carbon prices rebounded off recent lows and bearish gas markets to post gains across the board. The Dec-25 EUA contract increased by €1.65 to close at €79.81 a tonne, while UK Allowances for Dec-25 edged up by £0.71 to end the week at £46.76 a tonne.
Oil Market
After initially gaining ground on Friday as trade war fears began to ease, crude oil prices ultimately settled lower on renewed prospects of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. President Donald Trump ordered U.S. officials last week to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy both expressed a desire for peace. A peace deal could ease global oil supply disruptions by ending sanctions against Moscow. Losses were curbed however by a delay until at least April of the imposition of U.S. reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on U.S. goods. Brent for April delivery fell by 28 cents to close out the week at $74.74 a barrel. WTI for March posted a loss of 55 cents to settle at $70.74 a barrel.
Markets this morning
A choppy start to trade activity this morning, with March-25 having opened below Friday’s close only to rise to 0.58p above its previous settlement before falling back again. The front month contract last went through at 121.50p per therm, down 0.76p day-on-day. Prompt activity is quiet with no trades going through yet for the Within day and Day ahead contracts. High wind speeds are helping to offset slightly cooler than forecast temperatures, although the GB system is showing a deficit of over 20mcm. Oil prices are steady as markets await firmer news on the potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Front month Brent last transacted at $74.85 a barrel, up 11 cents on Friday’s close.
17 February 2025
