Gas Market
A combination of geopolitical headlines and mixed fundamentals continued to drive volatility on the NBP on Monday. After opening the week at 94.66p per therm, the front month contract moved up through the morning and into the afternoon, eventually closing at 100.81p per therm, just 4 pence shy of the intra-day high. Reports of an attack on Ukraine by Russian forces using a gas transit pipeline over the weekend fed into the upside, while a statement from the European Commission which reiterated the bloc’s intent to permanently pivot away from Russian gas supply, regardless of a peace deal, provided additional support. Prompt prices were also bullish, with the Day ahead contract posting a day-on-day gain of 6.60p to settle at 102.10p per therm. Downward revisions to temperature and wind level forecasts fed into the short-term upside, although warmer conditions are expected to return from next week.
Power Market
A downward revision to wind output forecasts for the rest of the week lifted GB baseload prompt contracts on Monday. A drop in temperatures over the same period added to the upside which saw the Day ahead contract increase by £4.77/MWh day-on-day to close at £91.14/MWh. Further out, near curve products experienced larger increases than the far curve, with upside from the NBP filtering in to provide the support. April-25 gained £2.25/MWh to end the session at £83.00/MWh.
In tandem with European gas markets, carbon prices advanced north on Monday after geopolitical tensions were heightened over the weekend between Russia and Ukraine. The Spot EUA contract increased by €1.00 day-on-day to end the session at €67.70 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices sank back below $70.00 a barrel on Monday as weak supply and demand fundamentals weighed on markets. The impact of U.S. tariff uncertainty, with Trump’s habit of announcing, imposing and then deferring sanctions on numerous key trade partners, has created uncertainty around future demand levels and economic forecasts. Meanwhile, the increasing likelihood of rising output from OPEC+ producers from April could result in an oversupplied global oil market, which also weighed on prices. However, potential sanctions on Iranian oil exports hampered any further downside. The front month Brent contract fell by $1.08 day-on-day to close the session at $69.28 a barrel, a fresh 6-month low. Over on the West Texas Intermediate market, the April contract settled at $66.03 a barrel, a loss of just over one dollar on the previous close.
Markets this morning
In a continuation of yesterday’s incline, NBP contracts are once again trading higher than their previous close this morning. The front month contract last went through at 102.79p per therm, up 1.98p day-on-day, while Summer-25 last transacted at a 1.85p per therm premium to Monday’s close. The Day ahead contract is showing similar strength, having most recently gone through at 104.05p per therm, up just under 2p. Maintenance works at the Asgard field are limiting Norwegian exports into the U.K. today, although the outage is set to come to an end after tomorrow. Despite this, the GB system is currently operating in a long position. Crude oil prices are largely trading sideways today, although a weak U.S. dollar has caused some minor upside in early trade.
11 March 2025
