Gas Market
NBP contracts ended the week in volatile fashion on Friday. Early reports of an attack on energy infrastructure at the Sudzha gas transmission facility in the Kursk region dampened hopes of reduced fighting between Ukraine and Russia while also stirring concerns of a return of Russian gas flows into Europe via Ukraine in the event of a peace-deal. The heightened geopolitical tensions were price supportive initially, with the front month contract trading a high of 109.75p per therm. However, upside eased later in the session, with April-25 eventually closing at 103.79p per therm, a loss of 0.54p day-on-day. The prompt market was similarly volatile, with both the Day ahead and Within day contracts ending the session up by 2.72p day-on-day to close at 105.38p and 102.88p per therm respectively.
Power Market
A weaker wind forecast from Monday supported the GB Baseload prompt market on Friday with the Day ahead contract jumping by 47.1% day-on-day to end the session at £99.53/MWh. Early gains across the NBP market fed into upside on the curve with the front month contract increasing by £0.78/MWh to close at £90.03/MWh. Further out, the Winter-25 contract increased by £0.33/MWh day-on-day to close at £91.50/MWh.
Initial upside driven by strengthening gas prices gave way to losses across European carbon markets on Friday. The Spot EUA contract shed 1.60 to end the week at €69.88 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil markets traded sideways on Friday, with the front month Brent contract ending the session up just 16 cents day-on-day at $72.16 a barrel. Modest upside lingered from the fourth round of U.S. sanctions on Iran announced on Thursday as well as a tighter looking supply scenario across Q2. OPEC+ announced a new plan for seven of its members to cut output to compensate for producing more than agreed levels, a move that would represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 435,000 bpd until June 2026. However, the impact was limited as OPEC+ is still planning to return 2.2 million barrels to the market starting in April. The WTI contract for May delivery ended the week at $62.28 a barrel, up 21 cents day-on-day.
Markets this morning
Prices across the NBP curve have eased this morning, with the front month contract last going through at a 1.79p per therm discount to Friday’s close. The market will closely watch for any news coming from the Russia-U.S. talks commencing today in Saudi Arabia that aim to progress a broad ceasefire in Ukraine. The prompt market is quiet so far, although weak fundamentals should hamper any upside. Average temperatures are forecast to remain above normal over the next two weeks. Although wind speeds are expected to be weak over the coming days, these will pick up from Thursday. Crude oil continues to trade sideways with the front month Brent contract increasing by just 6 cents on Friday’s close so far.
24 March 2025
