Price fluctuations across global markets due to Donald Trump’s tariffs continued on Friday

Gas Market

Price fluctuations across global markets, including the NBP, due to Donald Trump’s tariffs continued on Friday. Curve prices made modest gains despite news that China would raise import taxes on U.S. goods to 125%, further stoking fears of a global recession. The front month contract closed the session at 83.10p per therm, up 0.92p day-on-day but still down 6.4% week-on-week. Colder temperatures forecast for this week as well as unplanned Norwegian outages limited losses on the prompt, with healthy levels of renewable output ensuring prices ended the session at a discount to Thursday’s close. The Day ahead contract fell by 2.15p day-on-day to close at 81.35p. Despite flows from Norway to the U.K. being significantly down day-on-day amid unplanned maintenance at the Aasta Hansteen facility and ongoing issues at the Gullfaks field, the Spot market shed 1.35p to close the week at 82.15p per therm.  

Power Market

Gas and carbon gains on Friday drove up prices across the GB Baseload futures curve. The front month contract posted a £1.00/MWh gain while the July 25 contract doubled that to increase by £2.00/MWh to close out the week at £73.90/MWh. Strong wind and solar production output weighed on the prompt. The Day ahead contract decreased by 8.0% day-on-day to end the session at £75.15/MWh. European carbon prices jumped on Friday afternoon amid strong buying activity on speculation that the market had found its floor. The Spot EUA increased by €2.78 day-on-day to end the week at €63.95 a tonne, while 2025 UK Allowances increased by £2.53 a tonne day-on-day.  

Oil Market

Against a backdrop of market turmoil and recession fears due to the intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China, oil prices edged up on Friday. The front month Brent contract posted a $1.43 gain to close the session at $64.76 a barrel, a decline of 1.3% week-on-week. Trump last week paused heavy tariffs against most trading partners, but a prolonged dispute between the world’s two biggest economies weighed on global economic growth, reducing oil demand in the process and mitigating further gains. Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices. The front month WTI contract shed $1.43 day-on-day to close out the week at $61.50 a barrel.    

Markets this morning

While NBP curve prices have posted modest gains so far this morning, the Day ahead contract last traded at 84.00p per therm, up 2.65p on Friday’s close. While temperatures for the rest of the week are expected to be largely in line with normal levels, wind power output is forecast slightly below  average for the coming days. The GB system is operating in a long position which should hamper potential gains on the Spot. Meanwhile, crude oil markets have edged up since the open on further exclusions to some U.S. tariffs. The front month Brent contract last went through at $65.13 a barrel, up 37 cents day-on-day.