The May contract for the NBP settled 2.27p higher at 85.37p yesterday, but the contract is still over 17.00p down this month

Gas Market

Prompt prices were lifted by the unplanned outages at Norwegian production plants yesterday. Natural gas exports were curbed by around 29mcm due to issues at the Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin plants yesterday which left the Spot and Day ahead 3.15p per therm higher at the close.  Forecasts for low wind generation also added to the upside as the Balance of month added 5.03p and realigned with the front month price at 85.00p.  Reports that the U.S. is to exclude phones and computer components from the recent reciprocal tariffs on China gave a modest boost to NBP futures in the morning and the early gains were consolidated through the afternoon.  The front month May settled 2.27p higher at 85.37p, but the contract is still over 17.00p down for the month so far.  

Power Market

GB baseload futures settled higher for a second day in succession on Monday as the power curve responded to gains to gas and carbon prices.  The May contract settled £1.83/MWh higher yesterday while it was the June contract that posted the greatest gain of the day, $2.20/MWh, having been assessed at £73.95/MWh at the close.  Wind generation is to remain muted on Tuesday which lifted the Day ahead. There was another bounce in carbon prices on Monday with strong buying pushing prices higher. European allowances for contracts out to 2026 settled an average of 2.3% or €1.54 up while UKAs added 1.6% or £0.75 per tonne on the day.  

Oil Market 

Crude oil prices started the week with modest gains as Brent for June delivery settled 12 cents up at $64.88 a barrel while the May contract for West Texas Intermediate was just 3 cents higher at $61.53 a barrel. Prices received a boost early on from weekend reports that the U.S. administration is to exclude tech stock like mobile phones, computers and other electronic components from the reciprocal tariffs announced earlier in the month.  Crude oil prices were also buoyed by reports that China’s oil imports for March were the highest for 18-months. The International Energy Agency is due to issue its latest estimate for global demand growth on Tuesday and they are expected to reduce their forecast from just over 1m barrels per day for 2025.  Both the Energy Information Administration and OPEC have reduced growth forecasts for oil demand recently.  

Markets this morning

The issues at the Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin plants have been resolved this morning according to the Gassco website and the GB gas system is showing a healthy surplus against todays demand of 177mcm. The Day ahead is a penny up while the near curve for the NBP has firmed since opening slightly lower.  The front month is 1.46p higher on the last exchange and contracts further along the curve are around a penny up on last night’s close. In the crude oil markets, both benchmarks are trading sideways as the boost from China’s oil imports for March are countered by demand outlook cuts.  The June contract for Brent is flat at $64.87 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate for May is 4 cents down at $61.49 a barrel.