The NBP extended Thursday’s losses on Friday after late declines resulted in a 2.70p per therm fall across the near months

Gas Market

The NBP extended Thursday’s losses on Friday after late declines resulted in a 2.70p per therm fall across the near months. Rapidly increasing temperatures from the weekend weighed on the Spot and prompt market, with the Within day and Day ahead contracts both dropping by 4.40p per therm day-on-day. The prompt’s weakness fed into the near curve, despite cooler temperatures expected from the first week in May. Renewed hopes of peace between Russia and Ukraine provided further downside after Russia’s Foreign Minister said on Friday that Moscow was ready to reach a deal to end the war. The front month contract fell by 2.68p to end the session at 78.57p per therm, down just under 10% week-on-week.  

Power Market

GB Baseload future contracts moved down on Friday, seeking direction from a weak NBP market. The front month contract posted a £1.62/MWh loss to end the week at £72.13/MWh, while Winter 25 fell by £1.52/MWh to close at £81.03/MWh. On the prompt, Weekend prices were supported by low wind and solar output forecasts, while the Day ahead contract made modest gains on an expected continuation of low wind levels into next week. European markets shrugged off the downward pull of gas prices on Friday to trade sideways. The Spot EUA ended the session flat against its previous close at €65.30 a tonne, while the December 25 contract shed just 1 cent to end the week at €66.29 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Oil prices edged up modestly on Friday afternoon despite a flurry of weak fundamentals. Oversupply concerns and uncertainty surrounding U.S. and China import tariffs kept a cap on gains, with the front month Brent contract posting a 32 cents increase to end the week at $66.87 a barrel. With a production acceleration from OPEC+ members possible from June, which would likely extend excess supply levels, crude prices struggled to find support for much of the morning. A stronger U.S. dollar also added to the weakness. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia continued talks around a possible end to the war in Ukraine. An end to the war and the easing of sanctions could allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets, extending the oversupply outlook even further.    

Markets this morning

NBP near curve prices have opened slightly below Friday’s close this morning, with the front month contract last going through at 78.31p per therm, down 0.26p day-on-day. The prompt and Spot markets are quiet so far with no trades going through yet for Within day or Day ahead. Warmer than normal temperatures for this week have reduced gas demand levels which should hamper potential upside. The GB system is currently operating with a minor deficit. Economic turmoil continues to plague oil markets, with uncertainty surrounding trade between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global oil demand. The front month Brent contract trades sideways, having last transacted 11 cents above its previous close.