NBP futures settled marginally lower on Monday after more uncertainty saw prices oscillate between losses and gains

Gas Market

There was more uncertainty in the markets on Monday as NBP futures oscillates between losses and gains for much of the session.  Reports that the Russian President announced a ceasefire weighed on prices briefly, but the details left the market underwhelmed. Putin is ordering a three-day ceasefire from 08-May, and this was met by scepticism from the Ukrainian side.  The front month for the NBP on its penultimate day traded between 76.50p and 79.73p per therm before settling at 78.27p, down 0.30p, day-on-day. The Winter-25 contract eased by 0.36p to close at 87.30p.  The above norm temperatures curbed gas demand yesterday and the Spot and Day ahead products shed 0.40p and 0.55p respectively. Demand may pick up as gas fired generators may be required to compensate for low wind generation in the stack from Tuesday.

Power Market

A decline in carbon EUAs pressured GB baseload power futures yesterday.  European allowances for contracts out to 2027 were down 2.0% or €1.39 per tonne on average yesterday.  The front month for the baseload curve shed £0.88/MWh to settle at £71.75/MWh.  The Winter-25 contract yielded £1.23/MWh and closed at £79.80/MWh.  The Iberian Peninsula was hit by a freak outage which shut down power supplies throughout Spain and Portugal, details of the cause are still unknown. Baseload for the Day ahead eased on Monday despite forecasts for wind generation to fall below 2.0GW for Tuesday.  Solar is expected to cover some of the deficit in the stack as renewables will cover around 24% of demand.

Oil Market 

Crude oil prices started the week in decline as demand concerns weighed.  Brent fell by over a dollar a barrel on Monday with uncertainty in the U.S. China trade war threatening to curb global oil demand.  It had seemed the two sides were setting their stalls out for talks or a negotiation towards the end of last week, however, conflicting signals from both camps has increased market concerns for an escalation in the trade war.  OPEC+ are due to increase production next month which should pressure crude oil prices although the group are not united behind this strategy and their plans may change as talks within the group continue ahead of their next meeting on 05-May.