Wednesday’s modest gains were partially retraced on Thursday as the NBP prompt and near curve fell back into negative territory

Gas Market

Wednesday’s modest gains were partially retraced on Thursday as the NBP prompt and near curve fell back into negative territory. The front month contract shed 0.68p day-on-day to finish the session at 77.25p per therm, while the Winter 25 contract posted a 0.41p loss to settle at 87.60p per therm. The prompt market was unperturbed by forecasts suggesting a drop in temperatures from next week alongside the start of a scheduled maintenance outage at the St. Fergus gas facility. The return of three nuclear units from maintenance over the coming two weeks weighed on the gas-for-power demand outlook, which added to the prompt’s downside. The Day ahead contract fell by 0.30p per therm to end the day at 76.05p per therm. The Spot market was also in decline, pressured by a healthy level of renewables in the power stack and an oversupplied system. The Within day contract fell by 0.95p day-on-day to settle at 76.25p per therm.  

Power Market

GB Baseload contracts recovered much of Wednesday’s gains on Thursday, with losses driven down by a fall across the NBP near curve. Taking over as the front month contract, June fell by £0.50/MWh to close the session at £71.00/MWh. Meanwhile the Winter 25 contract shed £0.75/MWh day-on-day to settle at £79.75/MWh. Although the Day ahead contract increased modestly, the Weekend contract edged down amid strong renewable generation forecasts. Carbon markets were quiet on Thursday due to a public holiday across much of the continent. Prices inclined modestly, with Spot EUA’s posting a 32-cent gain to finish the day at €66.11 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Having initially continued Wednesday’s losses into Thursday morning, oil prices picked back up in the afternoon session to settle higher day-on-day. The early downside was driven by oversupply concerns, with speculation rife that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, could raise production levels. News that the U.S. economy had contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter of 2025, which suggested a diminished demand outlook, further exacerbated the supply glut fears. However, by the afternoon sentiment had changed, with prices focusing on correcting the recent steep declines. Positive economic indicators from the U.S. also helped to curb losses, with tech giants Meta and Microsoft issuing robust earnings reports, pointing to a slightly less gloomy outlook. The front month Brent contract posted a $1.10 gain to end the session at $62.13 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

NBP prices have firmed this morning, with the front month contract last transacting at 79.69p per therm, up 2.44p on last nights close. Support has been provided by news that China has signalled that it is open for talks with the United States, raising hopes of an end to the bitter trade war between the two nations.  The Spot market is also trading higher despite the GB system operating in a long position. Meanwhile the prompt market is yet to get going, although a drop in temperatures over the weekend and heightened gas-for-power demand levels could provide support. Movement so far across oil markets is more muted than recent days, with prices tentative to how potential trade talks between the US. and China will play out.