Gas Market
NBP gas prices gained support in early trading in anticipation of talks between China and the United States, aimed at reaching a compromise in the tariff dispute that began in early April. Further support came from the publication of the European Commissions’ Roadmap Towards Ending Russian Energy Imports. The plan outlines a phased reduction of Russian gas and LNG imports, with a full phase-out targeted by the end of 2027. A legal proposal is expected to be published in June. Currently, the EU still sources 19% of its imported gas from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments. The report suggests the long-term impact on prices should be limited, with several new global LNG supply projects expected to come online before the 2027 deadline. There is also optimism that expanding renewables will reduce the EU’s reliance on natural gas. As a result Winter-25 peaked, at 93.75p/th before settling at 93.47p.
.
Power Market
GB Baseload curve prices built on the gains made on Friday as the wider energy complex provided support to the electricity market. The strong NBP gas market propped up baseload power prices while a 2.5% increase in 2025 UKA’s added to the bullish sentiment. The winter-25 contract closed at £84.30/MWh, a three-week high following the £2.50 session on session gains. On the prompt, the Day ahead power contract increased for the fourth consecutive session as the below average wind generation added upward pressure to prices. High levels of solar energy however has seen the continuation of peak prices trading at a discount to the day ahead baseload contract – £83.50/MWh compared to £84.25.
Oil Market
Brent Crude prices rebounded from recent four-year lows, closing at $62.15 a barrel for July delivery. Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced plans to accelerate the rollback of voluntary production cuts. Some analysts now anticipate a full reversal by the end of November, significantly earlier than the previously targeted Q4 2026. However, expectations of increased demand in both Europe and China ahead of the anticipated US-China trade talks lent further support to prices. Friday’s price dip likely encouraged buyers to return to the market in Tuesday’s session, reinforcing upward pressure. Continued unrest in the Middle East, with reports indicating that Israel has targeted Iran-backed Houthi positions in Yemen, added further support to prices.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices opened in negative territory this morning, with the front-month contract trading over a penny down in early dealings. However, prices have since staged a recovery, with the June contract now up 1.39p/th on Tuesday’s close. Crude oil is also firmer, with the July contract trading 37 cents higher. Completing the picture across the broader energy complex, EUAs are also on the rise in early trading, with the Dec-25 contract pushing back above €70.00 per tonne. Markets across the board are keeping a close eye on the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks, with hopes of a compromise that could lift the global economic outlook and demand expectations.
07 May 2025
