The NBP near curve edged up on Thursday, buoyed by positive economic indicators and strength across the prompt market.

Gas Market

The NBP near curve edged up on Thursday, buoyed by positive economic indicators and strength across the prompt market. The forthcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. scheduled for over the weekend, as well as news of a trade deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom lifted the near months by 2.0% day-on-day. The front month contract posted a 1.73p gain to settle at 84.80p per therm. The Spot market shrugged off a reduction in both weather driven and gas-for-power demand levels, instead focusing on an undersupplied system. Within day increased by 1.55p to settle at 84.05p per therm. Meanwhile the Day ahead contract edged sideways, with the return of numerous facilities from maintenance from today being offset by several ongoing Gassco outages taking place throughout the month.

Power Market

The GB Baseload futures market was heavily influenced by increases across the NBP on Thursday with the near months averaging day-on-day gains of £1.69/MWh. The front month contract posted a £0.75/MWh increase to close the session at £76.75/MWh. In contrast, the prompt market fell back, driven by forecasts for above-average solar production levels and warmer temperatures. The Day ahead contract fell by £1.63/MWh to settle at £83.13/MWh. Carbon prices eased off Wednesday’s 6-week highs yesterday amid strong selling activity. EU Allowances for December 2025 fell back by €0.10 to settle at €71.03 a tonne, while UK Allowances followed a similar trend.

Oil Market

Oil prices rose on Thursday as global economic cooperation between the U.S. and China and the U.K. renewed the outlook for demand. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with China’s top economic official on Saturday in Switzerland for negotiations over a trade war that has been disrupting the global economy. Meanwhile, a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. announced yesterday was also a supportive factor. Both deals could signal a reduction in trade volatility across the globe. Keeping a cap on gains however were the ongoing oversupply concerns due the increase in production levels from OPEC+, with increases expected to continue into next month also. The front month Brent contract increased by $1.72 day-on-day to close the session at $62.84 a barrels.

Markets this morning

The NBP has opened flat this morning, with markets likely remaining tentative to the outcome of trade talks between China and the U.S. scheduled for tomorrow. The front month contract last went through at 85.15p per therm, just 0.35p above yesterday’s close. Activity across the Spot and prompt is quiet so far, although warmer temperatures and a reduction in demand from tomorrow could be price suppressive for the Day ahead contract. Crude oil prices have continued to edge up this morning, albeit to a lesser extent than yesterday. The front month Brent contract last transacted at $63.66 a barrel, up 82 cents so far day-on-day.