The NBP near curve was supported by the deal reached between the U.S. and China over the weekend that will temporarily slash trade tariffs between the two nations.

Gas Market

NBP curve contracts opened above their previous close on Monday morning and maintained their position in positive territory as the session progressed. Prices were supported by the deal reached between the U.S. and China over the weekend that will temporarily slash trade tariffs between the two economic giants. The news pushed U.S. stock markets to two-month highs, easing recession fears. The NBP front month contract responded by gaining 1.91p day-on-day to close at 84.60p per therm. Meanwhile, the market remains tentative to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine later in the week. Lower renewable production levels expected from today held up the prompt, while the upward momentum of the near curve also filtered into gains. The Day ahead contract increased by 1.35p day-on-day to settle at 76.08p per therm.

Power Market

The uptick across the NBP gas curve on Monday fed into gains on the GB Baseload market. The front month contract increased by £1.63/MWh day-on-day to settle at £77.00/MWh. Further out, increases across the wider energy complex provided upside, with the Summer-26 contract posting a gain of £1.10/MWh. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract closed the session at a discount of £3.31/MWh to its previous close despite an expected downturn in wind levels. European carbon markets responded strongly to the news of an interim reduction in trade tariffs between China and the U.S. Encouraged also by gains across other energy markets, the EUA spot contract closed at €72.20 a tonne, its highest close in almost 8 weeks.

Oil Market

Oil prices increased by 1.6% on Monday after negotiations between the U.S. and China over the weekend resulted in an easing of their tariff measures on an interim basis. The potential de-escalation of the trade war between the world’s largest crude oil consumers has stirred renewed optimism in the global economic outlook and lifted oil demand forecasts. The market will remain tentative however to further developments regarding the tariffs considering the agreement was for a temporary pause only. Curbing further gains was the ongoing rise in oil production output from OPEC+ which is expected to continue into next month. The front month Brent contract increased by $1.05 day-on-day to end the session at $64.96 a barrel.

Markets this morning

NBP near curve movements are flat this morning with the front month contract last going through just 0.40p below its previous close. The prompt market is also quiet so far. While demand levels remain largely unchanged day-on-day and supplies remain robust and comfortable, the market will maintain its focus on geopolitical developments, particularly Trump’s visit to the Gulf states and the potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks on Thursday. Crude oil markets are similarly flat, with the front month Brent contract last transacting at $65.25 a barrel, a gain of just 29 cents on yesterday’s close.