The NBP near curve is trading sideways this morning as the market awaits further details on the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine

Gas Market

NBP curve contracts opened above their previous close on Wednesday before retreating later in the session in what seemed to be a modest slide across the wider energy complex. Having opened at its high of the day at 85.50p per therm, the front month contract went on to shed 1.39p to close at 83.73p per therm. It was a similar story further out as the Winter 26 contract posted a 1.28p loss to settle at 87.50p per therm. The potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pegged for today also loomed large throughout the session. A bearish weather outlook with warm temperatures and high renewable production levels weighed on the prompt market with Day ahead falling by 0.63p to close at 78.20p per therm. An oversupplied GB system pressured the Spot market to fall by 3.45p, ending the session at 78.80p per therm.  

Power Market

GB baseload future contracts fell in line with losses across the NBP gas market on Wednesday. The front month contract posted a £2.20/MWh loss to close out the session at £74.68/MWh. Bearish weather forecasts pressured the prompt market down as wind generation levels for the coming week were revised up and solar output was set to remain above normal. The Day ahead contract fell by £0.95/MWh day-on-day to settle at £77.08/MWh. European carbon prices followed gas, power and oil prices down on Wednesday, while a slide across financial markets also fed into the downside. The EUA Spot contract shed €1.16 to close out the session at €71.14 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Oil prices were rangebound on Wednesday, edging down by less than 1% day-on-day. A potential increase in U.S. crude inventories combined with losses across other energy commodities provided the modest downside. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its oil supply growth forecast for producers outside OPEC+ which helped to limit losses. Supply from non-OPEC+ countries will rise by approximately 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. Supply growth from the U.S. is particularly likely to slow, primarily due to lower oil prices, meaning producers will be less likely to expand supply levels this year. The front month Brent contract fell by 58 cents day-on-day to close at $66.09 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

The NBP near curve is trading slightly lower this morning as the market awaits further details on the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. It now appears that Putin will not be in Turkey to attend the talks and doubts are surfacing as to whether-or-not the talks will even take place today. The front month contract last transacted at 82.83p per therm, down 0.90p on the previous close. Although Spot and prompt activity is yet to get going, bearish weather and demand fundamentals will likely hamper any potential upside. Expectations of a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could result in sanctions easing is weighing on oil markets this morning. The front month Brent contract last went through at $63.99 a barrel, down $2.10 day-on-day.