Gas Market
British gas prices made modest gains ahead of the UK bank holiday weekend with the NBP front month June contract increasing 0.34p to 87.15p/therm up 3.31p/therm for the week. Gas prices initially fell over 2p during Friday’s session, with the front month reaching an intra-day low of 84.3p/therm, after Trump’s announcement recommending a 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1
st. Markets then rebounded to close the day up for the session as an unplanned outage at Troll gas field reduced operational capacity by 24.6mcm/d. On the prompt, the day-ahead contract increased 1.95p to 87.71p/therm on the back of the Troll outage, although further gains were limited by a 10 mcm/d drop in gas for power demand, driven by strong wind generation.
Power Market
GB baseload contracts ended the week up by an average of 3.36%, despite a subdued trading session on Friday. Prompt power prices came under pressure due to exceptionally strong wind generation, which reached 20.1 GW, well above seasonal norms and accounted for 68% of the UK’s power output over the weekend. This reduced gas-for-power demand and as a result, the day-ahead contract fell by £19.50, or 22%, to £68.50/MWh.
European carbon prices edged lower on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs on the EU. However, prices held above the €70 level, with the December 2025 EUA contract falling €0.56 to €71.65/tonne. UKAs finished the week up 7% despite a 3.5% drop on Friday.
Oil Market
Oil prices rose on Friday as U.S. buyers covered positions ahead of the day Memorial Day weekend, which marks the start of the U.S. summer driving season, the period of highest demand for motor fuels. The gains were also supported by concerns surrounding the latest round of nuclear talks between American and Iranian negotiators. Brent crude futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, up 34 cents. Iranian and U.S. officials met in Rome on Friday, although optimism for a breakthrough remains low. Further upside was limited by renewed trade tensions, as Trump recommended a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, a move that could dampen global economic demand. Additional downward pressure came from expectations that OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, with the remainder of its 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts potentially being unwound by the end of October.
Markets this morning
UK Gas markets are closed this morning due to the UK bank holiday. Dutch wholesale gas prices have found support from an extension in Norwegian outages at the Troll gas field. The Norwegian operator Gassco have reported flows of Norwegian gas to Europe and Britain are down to 250.1 million cubic metres (mcm) per day, down from 282.7 mcm/day on Sunday. Oil prices have edged up after Trump extended a deadline for trade talks with the European Union, postponing the introduction of a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9th and easing concerns about U.S. tariffs on the bloc that could hurt the global economy. Front month Brent crude last traded at 65.15, up 37c on Friday’s close.
26 May 2025
