Gas Market
A combination of factors saw NBP curve contracts edge up on Tuesday, while a series of maintenance issues held up the prompt. Trump’s announcement over the weekend of a delay to the potential 50% tariffs on the EU was price supportive. Meanwhile, recent Norwegian outages and unplanned outage extensions could put additional pressure on demand for injections later in the summer and into the early winter period, supporting prices further out. The front month contract increased by 1.31p to end the session at 88.46p per therm. Over the weekend Troll announced extensions to its maintenance schedule, now expected to last until Friday. With Norwegian flows into the U.K. down, while UKCS flows were also limited due to an unplanned outage at Barrow North, the Spot market increased by 2.18p to close at 90.50p per therm.
Power Market
An upward revision to wind production levels from next week weighed on the GB Baseload front month contract, allowing it to break-away from the influence of the NBP gas market. The June 25 contract fell by £2.75/MWh day-on-day to settle at £75.00/MWh. Further out, losses were more muted, with the Winter 25 contract falling by just £0.33/MWh day-on-day. In contrast, the Day ahead product was held up by low renewable output forecasts, increasing by £7.44/MWh to close at £76.00/MWh.
European carbon prices ticked down on Tuesday, in what was likely a correction to Monday gains linked to a delay of U.S. tariffs on the European Union.
Oil Market
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, driven by ongoing concerns surrounding a possible global supply glut. Some progress was reported from the latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. last week. Although progress was supposedly limited, any resolution between the two could add Iranian oil supply to the market, increasing the global supply pot. Meanwhile, OPEC+ are expected to decide to increase output at a meeting later this week, further consolidating oversupply fears. Losses were curbed however by Trump’s decision to extend trade talks with the E.U. until July 9th, alleviating fears of supressed demand levels. The front month Brent contract fell by 69 cents day-on-day to settle at $64.09 a barrel, while WTI for July delivery shed 64 cents to close at $60.89 a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP prices are this morning trading a touch below Tuesday’s close. Having opened slightly higher than its previous settlement, the front month contract edged down, last transacting at 88.10p per therm. The Spot and prompt markets are yet to get going, although a well-supplied system and lower gas-for-power demand levels could curb any potential gains. The market remains tentative however to news relating to unplanned outages. Oil prices are flat this morning as the market weighs up the potential supply risk after reports that the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela under a new asset authorisation. Front month Brent last went through at $64.13 a barrel, up just 4 cents day-on-day.
28 May 2025
