Gas Market
A late afternoon fall across the NBP curve caused the near months to close down by 4.02% on Thursday. Prices declined despite uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook in the wake of a U.S. court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. On its final day trading as the front month contract, having reached an intra-day high of 88.30p, June 25 went on to settle at 84.59p per therm, a loss of 3.22p day-on-day. Losses were slightly more pronounced across the Spot and prompt market. Renewables made up 67.8% of the generation mix on Thursday, reducing demand from the gas-for-power sector. Coupled with a well-supplied system, the Within day contract fell by 5.75p day-on-day to close at 82.35p per therm. A comparatively lower level of wind production output from today ensured Day ahead losses were more muted, however the contract still shed close to 4p to end the day at 83.25p per therm.
Power Market
GB baseload futures were influenced by losses across the NBP gas market on Thursday afternoon. The front month contract shed £1.78/MWh to close at £71.35/MWh. Slightly further out, the Winter 25 contract posted a loss of £1.85/MWh to settle at £85.28/MWh. Upside across the prompt was limited, with the Day ahead contract gaining a mere £0.38/MWh day-on-day on lower wind and solar production output.
Similary, after opening in positive territory, European carbon prices fell back in the afternoon following losses across the wider energy complex. The Spot EUA contract fell by €1.23 at the close to settle at €69.87 a tonne, a nearly two-week low.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices opened in positive territory on Thursday morning before following the same direction as the NBP to fall back in the afternoon. The early gains were driven by the news that a U.S. court had blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, alleviating fears of an economic downturn. Reports of potential additional U.S. sanctions on Russia, as well as wildfires in Canada which threaten to disrupt oil production in Alberta, added further upside. By the afternoon however the upward trajectory had run out of steam, with markets taking a more cautious approach to the latest tariff developments. Meanwhile, although the strong likelihood that OPEC+ will decide to increase production in July has been priced in, reports that Kazakhstan is refusing to cut output levels added further weight to the losses. The front month Brent contract fell by 75 cents to end the session at $64.15 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Yesterday afternoon’s losses have continued into this morning, with the new front-month contract, July 25, last trading at a 0.72p discount to its previous close. Global economic uncertainty continues after it was announced late yesterday evening that a federal appeals court had reinstated most of Trump’s tariffs just a day after a U.S. trade court had ordered an immediate block on them. Although prompt and Spot market activity is so far quiet, an oversupplied system as well as healthy supply flows from Norway will likely weigh on the Within day contract. Crude oil prices are flat, maintaining their cautious approach to the latest tariff developments. The front month Brent contract is down by just 32 cents so far today.
30 May 2025
