Gas Market
UK gas markets were rangebound on Friday, capping off a subdued trading session after a week of mixed price movements. The front-month NBP contract slipped by 0.51p to settle at 84.91p/therm, despite the July contract posting a weekly gain of 5.29p/therm. Prices had found support earlier in the week from planned maintenance at key Norwegian facilities, which initially tightened supply expectations. However, a downward revision to the expected impact Oseberg, from 25 mcm/d to just 11 mcm/d, helped ease supply concerns on Friday, contributing to the muted activity. Movements on the prompt were also limited, with the day-ahead contract edging up by just 0.2p/therm amid sideways UK demand over the weekend.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices saw a mixed session on Friday, with the Day-ahead contract increasing 11.64% to £81.50/MWh amid forecasts of declining renewable generation over the weekend. Despite the sharp increase in prompt pricing, activity along the curve was more subdued, with near-term contracts rising by an average of just £0.75/MWh, rounding off a 4.35% weekly increase.
Meanwhile, European carbon markets were relatively stable throughout the day, though supported by strong auction results and firm energy prices. The 2025 EUA contract gained €0.90 on Friday to settle at €73.92/tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices increased on Friday, with front month Brent rising $1.13 to settle at $66.47 per barrel, marking a 5.7% weekly gain, the first in three weeks. The rally was driven by renewed optimism over global economic growth following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, bolstering confidence in the economic outlook. Additionally, news of a positive phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi, initiated by Washington, helped ease concerns over trade tensions. The combination of solid employment data and renewed diplomatic engagement between the world’s two largest economies provided bullish momentum for oil markets.
Markets this morning
NBP near-curve contracts are trading down an average of 1.13p/therm this morning, with natural gas prices slightly below Friday’s close. The decline reflects stable market fundamentals, despite ongoing maintenance in Norway and a slightly weaker demand outlook. High wind generation forecasts and warmer-than-average temperatures across northwest Europe for this week are expected to limit short-term demand, further weighing on market sentiment. In the oil markets, investors are awaiting the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks taking place in London later today, hoping a potential deal could improve the global economic outlook and support fuel demand.
09 June 2025
