A comfortable gas system weighed on the prompt on Monday as the Spot shed 4.00p per therm

Gas Market

Early morning losses of around a penny on the near NBP curve were extended over the session on Monday in response to declines on the prompt and a comfortable gas system. The July contract ended the session 2.40p per therm down at 82.51p which cut the five-day increase to around a penny. Winter-25 settled 1.44p down at 94.26p while declines to the longer curve were more modest. Prompt prices reacted to a system surplus yesterday while ongoing summer maintenance continues at key Norwegian plants. The Spot shed 4.25p yesterday while the Day ahead was down 3.00p as forecasts for renewables remain high and cut demand for gas generators. European gas in storage rose above 50% at the weekend and is currently at 51.4% of capacity compared to 71.6% for the same time last year.

Power Market

The declines on the NBP near curve fed into baseload power futures on Monday as the front month settled £1.55/MWh down.  The August contract posted the greatest loss of the day as it fell by £2.05/MWh and like gas declines were more modest further out the curve.  Carbon prices increased with support from reports that trade talks between China and the U.S. had started in London.  The Spot for EUAs settled at €73.33 per tonne its highest settlement since 10-Feb-25. Baseload for the Day ahead settled higher yesterday, despite forecasts for strong wind generation. Levels are expected to exceed 15.0GW on Tuesday but solar forecasts are down so overall renewables will only be around 2.0GW up.

Oil Market

Talks between China and the U.S. started in London yesterday and are expected to bring a resolution to the trade war between the world’s two largest oil consuming nations. The meeting came on the back of a call between President Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week and talks are expected to continue this week.  Brent posted its third increase in a row as the global benchmark settled at $67.04 a barrel, a new six-week high. A weaker dollar was also a factor in the downside yesterday. As the summer driving season kicks off in the U.S., the markets will be watching weekly reports for a draw on gasoline reserves as it normally sparks a surge in demand. The driving season normally starts in early June as holiday makers take to the roads for their annual vacation.

 Markets this morning

Crude oil prices have eased this morning, but Brent is trading in a tight range.  The August contract is down 27 cents reacting to the drop in some U.S. stocks late last night following the spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk over the U.S. tax bill. The row has caused further uncertainty in the markets this morning.  Closer to home, NBP futures have ticked up a touch with July last trading at 86.23p per therm, while the Winter contract is 0.63p higher at 96.60p.  The prompt has yet to get off the mark, but GB gas demand is pitched lower at 123mcm for today and the system is balanced.  Carbon EUAs continue to add premium this morning with contracts for 2025 and 2026 up by around 50 cent per tonne.