NBP Gas contracts traded within a narrow range on Tuesday.

Gas Market 

The front-month July contract opened Tuesday’s session broadly in line with Monday’s close but slipped steadily from that early high as the day wore on. While the contract briefly tested the 80.00p/th level, it couldn’t quite break into the 70s, eventually bouncing back just before the close to settle at 80.50p. Gas prices came under pressure with an expected increase in wind speeds and forecasts for warmer weather in the coming days are expected to dampen gas demand. Adding to the downward momentum is the outlook for increased Norwegian gas flows. The current programme for maintenance on the Norwegian system is drawing to a close, with flows from the Oseberg field set to resume earlier than previously anticipated.

Power Market

GB baseload power contracts continued to follow the downward trend seen on the NBP, with most contracts declining for a second consecutive day. The July 2025 contract closed 90p lower at £74.30/MWh, while further out along the curve, losses were more muted. Baseload power contracts for 2027 saw slight gains, buoyed by firmer UKA prices. On the prompt, the day-ahead price edged higher. This was largely driven by an expected dip in wind generation for the day, despite forecasts pointing to above-average wind output for the week overall. EUA prices slipped on Tuesday, handing back Monday’s gains and breaking a six-day run of increases.

Oil Market

Brent crude oil prices held near to Monday’s closing level, slipping just 17 cents to settle at $66.87/bbl. Prices continue to be underpinned by the ongoing trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, the US and China. While a definitive agreement has yet to be confirmed, comments from President Trump added to Monday’s positive sentiment, with analysts increasingly confident that a deal is imminent. Any breakthrough that results in a scaling back of the tariff war between the two superpowers could help ease fears of a global recession and support global oil demand. Elsewhere, oil production data has revealed that some OPEC+ members have fallen short of the higher output targets agreed at the organisation’s most recent meeting, further supporting prices.

Markets this morning

NBP gas prices have rebounded sharply this morning following reports that the US and China have extended their trade truce and reached a “framework” agreement on the export of rare earth minerals and semiconductors. The front-month contract climbed as high as 83.40p/th—nearly 3.00p above Tuesday’s close—before easing back, with July last seen trading at 82.86p. Brent crude has been slower to react, with recent gains already pricing in expectations of a deal. Rather than extending on this morning’s news, the market appears to be holding its previous gains in response to the confirmed agreement.