Gas Market
NBP gas prices saw a mixed session on Monday, as ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran continued to inject geopolitical risk into the market. Concerns over global LNG supply security were heightened following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field and the potential threat of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices softened later in the day as news broke that Iran is seeking to de-escalate the conflict and pursue a truce, easing immediate fears of supply disruption. The front-month contract eased, settling down 0.72p at 89.08p/therm. Additionally, increased Norwegian flows and increased temperatures provided further downward pressure on the prompt. The decline on the day-ahead contract reflected comfortable system fundamentals, closing slightly lower at 90.30p/therm, down 0.20p.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices were mixed on Monday, with the market caught between upward pressure from the gas market early in the session and forecasts of reduced demand amid ongoing above-average temperatures. The front-month contract slipped by £0.50 to £81.00/MWh, while Win-25 edged up £0.13 to close at £91.38/MWh, largely tracking movements on the NBP. On the prompt, the day ahead declined 4% to £84.25/MWh on the back of warmer temperatures.
Meanwhile, EU carbon prices lagged behind gains in other energy markets, initially falling due to early selling pressure despite the early morning rally in natural gas. The 2025 EUA declined 73c to settled down close to 1% at €75.18/tonne
Oil Market
Crude oil prices edged lower on Monday, reversing some of Friday’s sharp 7% rally. After briefly reaching an intraday high of $78.32, front-month Brent retreated to settle at $73.23 per barrel, marking a daily loss of $1.00. The decline came as military strikes between Israel and Iran over the weekend failed to disrupt oil production or export infrastructure, easing market fears of an immediate supply shock. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, there has been no impact on flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has not taken steps to curtail exports. Iran has instead turned to regional powers Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, seeking their help in urging U.S. President Donald Trump to push Israel toward a ceasefire, offering diplomatic flexibility on its nuclear program in return. The lack of direct threats to supply removed the bullish momentum from Friday’s rally, which had pushed crude into overbought territory.
Markets This Morning
NBP gas prices found support this morning following reports that Iran has partially suspended production at the South Pars field, the world’s largest gas field it jointly operates with Qatar, after an Israeli strike caused a fire on Saturday. The NBP front-month contract last traded at 91.13p/therm, up 2.05p. Meanwhile, the European Commission is expected to propose a ban on EU imports of Russian natural gas and LNG by the end of 2027, introducing legal measures to prevent member states such as Hungary and Slovakia from blocking the plan. In oil markets, continued military exchanges between Israel and Iran have supported prices, with the Brent crude August 2025 contract last trading at $74.22, recovering Monday’s losses.
17 June 2025
