Gas and crude oil prices have eased this morning as President Trump delays decision

Gas Market

The gas markets opened with strong gains yesterday stoked by fears of an escalation in the war between Israel and Iran. The front months have gained an average of 14.00p per therm over the week since Israel attacked Iranian nuclear sites and the conflict continues to raise fears of a disruption to oil and gas supplies. The U.S. threatened to get directly involved in the war and there were calls for the elimination of the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei from Israel.  Near months rallied just before the close which left prices an average of 7.16p higher day-on-day.  The July contract settled at 98.20p, the highest settlement for almost three months. If the U.S. do join the war it will take the conflict to another level and is why Donald Trump later released a statement to say he will take two weeks to make his decision.

Power Market

GB Baseload futures took the lead form the gains on the NBP futures curve but increases on the day were tempered by falling carbon prices.  The front month for the baseload curve settled £1.75/MWh up at £83.75/MWh yesterday however, the winter-25 contract closed at £97.00/MWh up £4.00/MWh. This takes the gain for the winter for the last five days to £8.50/MWh. There was a selloff in the carbon markets yesterday following comments that the U.S. were considering joining the conflict in the Middle east. The Spot price for European Allowances settled at €72.12, down €1.63 per tonne. 

Oil Market

The was more volatility in the crude oil markets on Thursday as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate. Calls from Israel for the elimination of Ali Khamenei, the Iranian leader added to the upside while there is also a possibility of direct involvement from the U.S.  Mixed messages from the White House added to the uncertainty on the day, but a press statement indicated that the U.S. President would take two-weeks to make his decision and this came a little late in the day for the market. Brent settled $2.15 a barrel up at $78.85 a barrel, its the highest settlement for Brent since the 22-January-2025. West Texas Intermediate closed at $77.20, up $2.06 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

With President Trump delaying his decision for direct involvement against Iran, the energy markets have opened lower this morning.  The conflict between Israel and Iran has continued overnight but talks between EU leaders and representatives from Iran are expected to take place later today in Geneva with hopes of getting a diplomatic solution. Crude oil prices have retreated off the five-month high and Brent last traded at $77.11, down $1.74 a barrel.  In the gas markets, near futures are creeping up from the intra-day low but latest exchanges for the front months are 1.75p per therm down on average.  On the prompt, it’s just the Spot that has traded so far and is down 1.70p at 98.00p.